Playing for time: will China try to score early or leave it late in its bid to host the Fifa World Cup?

The United States, Canada and Mexico recently announced they will make a joint bid to host football’s 2026 World Cup. If successful, the countries would become the first to co-host the tournament since Japan and South Korea did so in 2002, and the first trio ever to stage football’s biggest national team competition. If Donald Trump survives for two terms in office, it would also presumably be a competition played against a backdrop of defensive walls (both on and off the pitch).

Many observers feel that all bets are off when it comes to who will host the tournament in 2026, not least because of Fifa’s rotation policy. This dictates that the World Cup cannot be held in the same region more than once every 12 years. With Asia planning host to the event in 2022 (Qatar) and Europe in 2018 (Russia), and with the Cup having taken place in South America (Brazil) in 2014 and in Africa in 2010 (South Africa), any US-led bid appears to be a shoo-in for 2026.

Or perhaps not? One country’s name now appears set to emerge whenever the World Cup bidding process is mentioned; indeed, it will continue to be mentioned until such time that the country eventually hosts the tournament: China. The country’s ambitions are clear: in its football development plan (published in 2016) becoming a leading Fifa nation, hosting the World Cup and winning the trophy by 2050 have been identified as key Chinese targets.

In theory, China cannot bid for the right to host the 2026 World Cup due to Fifa’s rotation policy. Some observers would argue nor should the country do so; although lavishly funded and vigorously pursued, China’s football is still rather fragile and unlikely to be in a world-beating state within the next decade. That said, the Chinese government may want to see a return on its football investment sooner rather than later, particularly as the longer the country waits for the World Cup the more cynical its people and observers across the world may become.

Furthermore, China’s corporations have been spending big on supporting Fifa in moves that have had a dual strategic purpose: to create a degree of financial dependence and to establish some control over decision-making networks. Dependence upon the Chinese has been built through a series of sponsorships, which Fifa acknowledges has rescued it from the financial mire inflicted by years of fighting organisational corruption. At the same time, the likes of Wanda has taken control of organisations such as Infront Sports and Media, key Fifa partners.

It is not, therefore, beyond the realms of possibility that China may decide to exercise its power and control by making an early bid to stage the World Cup, in 2026. This would nevertheless require a change to Fifa statutes, a move that would potentially antagonise China’s fellow Asian Football Confederation (AFC) members even more. The country’s relationship with the AFC is rumoured to already be somewhat strained following the country’s moves to create and stage the China Cup (the first iteration of which took place earlier this year).