Paris Olympics 2024: United States, China expected to win most medals, with hosts France set to triple gold-medal bounty
- The US and China are projected to win 123 and 89 medals overall, respectively, and to finish 1-2 as they did at the previous Olympics in Tokyo
- The forecast was by Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistics for sports leagues and also tracks major competitions leading up to the Games
The United States and China are expected to finish 1-2 in the gold and the overall medal counts at the Paris Olympics, which open in 100 days.
The United States is projected to win 123 medals overall, including 39 golds. China is projected to win 35 gold and 89 medals overall. The two also finished 1-2 in both categories three years ago in the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics.
This forecast was done by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistical analysis for sports leagues around the world. It also tracks major competitions involving Olympic sports leading up to the Games.
Gracenote’s rankings are based on overall medals won, although others focus the rankings on gold totals.
China, the last country apart from the US to top the medal table, will retain second place with 35 gold medals, while Britain, Au stralia and Japan will win the fourth highest number of gold medals with 13 apiece, Gracenote predicts.
This would be the eighth straight time the United States have won the most medals overall in the Summer Games. In 1992 at Barcelona, the so-called Unified team topped the overall count. Those athletes were from the former Soviet Union, which had just broken up as a sovereign state.
The last time the United States did not top the gold-medal count in the Summer Games was in the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, where China invested heavily and saw dividends.
Next in line with overall and gold totals are: Britain (66-13), France (55-28), Australia (50-13), Japan (49-13), Italy (47-12), Netherlands (38-18), Germany (36-9) and South Korea (24-9).
The next 10 are: Canada (22-6), Spain (20-5), Hungary (19-5), Brazil (18-9), Turkey (13-4), Ethiopia (13-3), Uzbekistan (13-3), Ukraine (13-3), Georgia (12-3) and Denmark (11-5).
Host nations always get a bump in medals, and France are expected to get a big one and increase their overall total from 33 in Tokyo. France are forecast to nearly triple their gold-medal output from Tokyo, where Japan picked up a record haul.
Performing at home is an advantage, partly because host nations invest more heavily in training athletes. Then, of course, there are adoring home crowds.
France are also competing in 25 different sports in Paris, far above their average in recent Olympics of between 15 and 19, according to Gracenote’s analysis.
The unknown factor is the presence of Russian and – to a lesser extent – Belarusian athletes. They have been absent from most international competitions over the past two years because of the war in Ukraine. Their influence is difficult to factor into the forecast, Gracenote acknowledges.
“It appears that there will be limited participation of these athletes (Russian and Belarusian),” Gracenote said. It said it expects its predictions to be accurate “based on the data that we have”.
Russia and Belarus are barred from team sports at the Olympics because of the war in Ukraine and the International Olympic Committee has laid out a two-step vetting procedure for individual athletes from those countries to be granted neutral status.
Those athletes must first be approved by the governing body of their individual sport and then by an IOC-appointed review panel.
Ukraine, whose athletes have struggled to prepare for the Games because of the continuing conflict at home, are forecast to win three golds and 13 total medals in Paris.
At the bottom of the table, Tajikistan, Finland, San Marino, Trinidad & Tobago, North Korea, Fiji, Panama and Vietnam are all forecast to win a single bronze medal.
