The Group Three Centenary Vase lost one of its stars yesterday but still offers a great, classic handicap contest where John Size-trained Khaya has a chance to turn over the Horse Of The Year.
Military Attack is missing but the 1,800m race is a fascinating tactical prospect that still features the towering figure of Designs On Rome (Joao Moreira) as he tries to emulate Akeed Mofeed last year in adding the Vase to his Hong Kong Cup.
To do that, Akeed Mofeed had the race run to suit and was still all out to beat the lightly weighted Ashkiyr and Same World from John Moore's yard. Now the shoe is on the other foot 12 months on as Moore is the one presenting the big horse with the big weight.
Designs On Rome is a slightly better horse than Akeed Mofeed but his major opposition in lightly weighted Khaya (Karis Teetan) looks better than Ashkiyr and Same World too.
He is unlucky not to have a better winning record than the 25 per cent he has and, while it was very much run to suit, his third in the Hong Kong Vase was a very decent effort under unsuitable terms. It took an international performer like Flintshire some time to get past Khaya in the Vase at level weights - he might not have done so under handicap conditions.
Now Khaya gets his chance to win a Group event, if Teetan can get the ride exactly right. While Designs On Rome and others are having their first start since international day eight weeks ago, Khaya has raced since his Hong Kong Vase third and also had another trial so he is hard fit and this is grand final day.
Expect Khaya to look for the lead ahead of Bubble Chic with other runners unlikely to offer much in the way of pressure and Teetan should be able to dictate how the race is run, which is going to be the key.
If the early pace is spirited, Designs On Rome will be too good and even if the pace is too slow, he should be able to quicken into the race from the 600m and round them up.
Perhaps the blueprint for a race plan with the potential to bring Designs On Rome undone is last year's Champions And Chater Cup. Through the race, the pace was neither too fast nor too slow but rolled steadily until the lead horses then turned up the tempo turning into the straight and Blazing Speed put the race beyond the run-ons. Now, there was a good argument that Designs On Rome was at the end of his very successful campaign that day and vulnerable for that reason.
But a horse with the five-year-old's racing style, even a real star like he is, can be brought undone by a race that isn't fast enough to burn out the leaders but doesn't slow down appreciably anywhere in running to allow him to whip up and put himself in striking range.
Khaya is the ideal horse to undertake this plan, increasing the tempo from some way out to put some distance between himself and Designs On Rome and forcing him to make a long finishing run under 131 pounds and bring the weights into play.
With Military Attack and Rainbow Chic out, the field is down to 10, several of them backmarkers and drawn wide, so it would not surprise if Moreira has Designs On Rome closer than many might assume, even from his wide draw.
The Brazilian will have thought about the possible scenarios and will be ready for the likely Size game plan and try to have two or three horses behind him rather than being right out the back, but he will also be wary of bustling the top weight early as well.
