Zac Purton is going to have to be at his brilliant best to make it happen but lightly raced Renaissance Art is the one to beat in the Hong Kong University Alumni Association Challenge Cup (1,800m) at Sha Tin today.
The Caspar Fownes-trained four-year-old has looked a horse of the future in his five local runs to date, living up to promise he showed in two starts in Ireland before his importation. He wasn't ready early enough for the Derby but has shown enough with two strong wins over 1,600m at Sha Tin and 1,800m at Happy Valley to say that he wouldn't have been out of place in that race.
Fownes then rolled the dice in the Group Three Queen Mother Memorial Cup over 2,400m, when Renaissance Art was out of the handicap but lightly weighted, lightly raced and a chance to surprise rivals who had been toiling most of the season.
He found another horse with similar credentials, Helene Happy Star, too good in messy wet conditions but again advertised that he has good races in him by grinding away for second. On the face value of that, he will take some beating today back into Class Two, but there are obstacles and that's where Purton's skills come in.
Renaissance Art has an awkward outside draw and the race lacks pace - a double threat that will test his mettle, especially coming back 600 metres in distance.
It looks unlikely that Renaissance Art will be any closer than second last in the field of nine, and well off what promises to be a very modest tempo, set by Bubble Chic and perhaps Anticipation, who jumped fast last time and was then dragged all the way back to the rear over 1,600m but might prefer to hold that forward place today.
These two appear unlikely to be setting much of a speed and Wayfoong Express (Nash Rawiller) and Top Act (Karis Teetan) probably find themselves trailing the front two without doing anything more than holding their spots.
So where does that leave Purton and Renaissance Art? Well, two options. The ugly one is pressing forward early and seeing how the four-year-old handles new tactics and that runs the risk of others drawn inside him having similar ideas.
Or there's the slightly more palatable solution that needs a dollop of good old fashioned luck, going back, finding the rail and attempting to find a path through the field as others make their moves.
Neither solution is perfect but if the best of Renaissance Art turns up, he still has the turn of foot to win.
