Jockey Club chief executive Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges has traditionally shot low with estimates for the new season's likely betting turnover, but worrying instability in the financial markets have him even more cautious than usual as the 2015-16 term stands ready to go this Sunday.

We have a lot of these customers with significant betting turnover whose businesses are linked to the Chinese economy so there's a direct correlation and in this climate, they may be more cautious with their discretionary spending
Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges

"It's normal to have fluctuations in the short term and normally it is not a big concern but the business climate in Hong Kong and China now looks a testing environment," Engelbrecht-Bresges said yesterday.

"I'm mindful too that our turnover has risen 34 per cent over the last four seasons and that is not an easy thing to sustain even in a kinder environment and it makes me think this looks a year of consolidation."

Engelbrecht-Bresges believes the link between the business climate and racing turnover is more direct than many might think.

"Our business is subject to the 80-20 rule - 20 per cent of our customers provide 80 per cent of our turnover," he explained.

"We have a lot of these customers with significant betting turnover whose businesses are linked to the Chinese economy so there's a direct correlation and in this climate, they may be more cautious with their discretionary spending."

But, for all the caution, the club chief remains confident of a positive turnover result, even if the extent of it might be reduced.

"In principle, we have a sound growth strategy so we should be OK. We have kept investing in our facilities through our Master Plan and that has seen growing interest in racing, in attending the races, with our crowds up 8 per cent in five years, and in racehorse ownership," he said.

Commingling is again the X-factor, after HK$3 billion in overseas-sourced bets provided half of the 5.8 per cent betting increase last season. Australia's most populous state, New South Wales, will join commingling into Hong Kong pools either on day one of the season or soon after - adding a forecast HK$5 million to HK$10 million a day - and the club is looking at Europe too.

"It is an announcement for another time, but I can say we will soon have a dedicated senior administrator with a special focus on developing commingling relationships with European countries," Engelbrecht-Bresges said. "The commingling figure keeps ticking upwards and this is a source which will help us to compensate for any economic developments which hinder the growth of domestically-generated turnover."

Within the Jockey Club, the big organisational event is the splitting of the racing division into the Racing Authority, under Andrew Harding, and the Racing Business Operations, under new recruit Tony Kelly.

While that won't, in itself, have any obvious interest for racing fans, the move will be one of the building blocks of two things which will hold public interest - Chengdu and Conghua.

The club will make "a more detailed announcement in early September" regarding its role in the race meeting in Chengdu in November, but one of Harding's major jobs is in developing in-principle co-operation agreements with the China Equestrian Association and China Horseracing Industry Association to work towards a racing industry on the mainland.

Conghua will fall under Kelly's aegis and there is significant progress on the training centre near Guangzhou.

"The contracts have now been awarded and construction of Conghua begins in October, and we have a plan to become operational towards the back end of the 2017-18 season," Engelbrecht-Bresges said.

There will be new developments in the wagering zone using Longitude's single-pool technology, an experiment with a false rail to try to offset the bias on the straight course at Sha Tin and the club is promising big improvements in its telecasting capabilities now that the technology centre at Sha Tin is up and running.

On the track, Joao Moreira and Zac Purton again look to dominate while the addition of Chad Schofield and Richard Fourie means the jockey ranks will be more competitive than ever, while Kei Chiong Ka-kei becomes the first female apprentice to ride here in 15 years.

Amongst the trainers, another classic battle between John Moore, John Size, Caspar Fownes and Tony Cruz is in the offing, while Almond Lee, Sean Woods and Andreas Schutz fight for their licences at the other end of the scale with two misses of the performance criteria already against their names.

And, of course, there will be the horses themselves, competing for more stake money than ever before and Engelbrecht-Bresges proudly points out that Hong Kong's best punched well above their fighting weight last season.

"Hong Kong has only 0.7 per cent of the horse population of the 19 countries with horses in the world's top rated performers, yet 11.4 per cent of the world's horses rated 120 or higher are based here," he said.

The ranks, naturally, will be headed by champion miler Able Friend who has to bounce back from his poor Royal Ascot display, but with many of the established Group One performers over the past few years ageing and declining, there will be vacancies at the top.

"I am hopeful we will see Able Friend right back at his top and new talents emerging as well in our elite ranks, and everyone is really looking forward to the Longines International Races week in December when they take on the world again," Engelbrecht-Bresges said.

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