Got Fly disappointed as favourite last time out but a drop in class, a drop back in distance and a very favourable pace scenario look the factors which will see Richard Gibson's four-year-old back in the winner's photo after the Chevalier Cup (1,600m) at Sha Tin today.
Last season's Derby runner-up, Got Fly (Gerald Mosse) resumed for the new term with a very good Class Two effort at Happy Valley over 1,650m, running on strongly late for second.
Gibson stepped him up to the Sha Tin 1,800m next time, a distance at which he was unbeaten previously, in the Group Three Ladies Purse and punters made him a warm favourite. He seemed to run a little flat in a race shape that may not have been his ideal either as he finished fifth behind Top Act but it was not a disgrace and it's worth noting that the four who beat Got Fly home were all having their third run for the new campaign, Got Fly his second.
We have seen Flame Hero, Fantastic Kaka and Dashing Fellow all lead at different times but they might have to forego thoughts of front-running here as Multivictory and Precision King are the faster horses and there looks little doubt their speed will be put into play under their light handicaps as both have wide draws to overcome.
That should see them charge across the face of the field in the early stages and set a good pace but they will have to do a little work to get around the speedier ones underneath them.
They will attempt to steady on the bend coming to the home straight and that is exactly what Got Fly and the other run-on horses want to see as they will steal ground without having to make any effort. Got Fly has shown himself to have a decent turn of foot when he lets go and at 1,600m he will be very strong at the finish.
For the danger, All You Wish (Douglas Whyte) is another well suited by the likely race shape and he won a similar race last season over this course.
His first two runs this season had plenty of merit when a closing fifth over 1,400m to Beauty Only then he was dropped back to a Group Three over 1,000m where he was working into the race only to find traffic issues. He hasn't run for two months since but, at his best, his finishing sprint is probably the best in the race.