Tony Millard-trained Hit The Bid is in outstanding form and gets a barrier switch that makes him the one to beat in the Peninsula Golden Jubilee Challenge Cup (1,200m) on the all-weather at Sha Tin today.
The winner of just one race, Hit The Bid (Joao Moreira) has always shown the ability to suggest he should be well past that tally but he has let himself down at times with his barrier manners - in fact, his racing manners generally.
He was showing his bad side first-up this season when Hit The Bid was slow to begin then overraced in a stop-start speed before closing well into third behind Rumba King. Those are the types of runs he puts in that make you think he should be winning more races - despite a pace against him and making so many mistakes, he still produced an excellent performance.
But Hit The Bid has been a much better-behaved character in his last two appearances, drawing wide and getting too far out of his races before surging home for a close second to today's rival Archippus (Derek Leung Ka-chun) and then fifth to Happy Chappy (Karis Teetan) when that horse dominated from the front.
Moreira has had four rides on Hit The Bid for three seconds and one memorable incident early in a race when the Brazilian was forced to slap Hit The Bid on the side of the head with the whip to stop him running through the inside rail after he missed the start.
Someone certainly owes someone a win, and today looks a good opportunity with Hit The Bid finding himself in a middle gate instead of out wide. With a decent start, that should see him lay up closer in the run and putting himself into the race instead of flashing home when it's all but over.
The question mark is the state of the track after the little bit of rain which has been about, as a wet surface could mean a heavy bias to the inside rail section and that generally assists leaders.
Last start, Happy Chappy rediscovered the gate speed he showed in his griffin debut win down the straight when he surged to the front early and controlled the race at his first attempt on dirt.
There doesn't look to be a lot of speed today and a similar ride will make him the danger to Hit The Bid, who will give him at least a start and, if the track is biased, he will give him more than that.
Others with chances are Archippus, winner of two of four since joining Paul O'Sullivan, and Ultimate Glory (Gerald Mosse), who has yet to run a bad race on this surface although he has yet to win one.