The HK$10 million Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup (2,400m) has been a graveyard for favourites but it is still hard to go past Werther to confirm his Horse of the Year status and win the final Group One of the season at Sha Tin today.
A win would give trainer John Moore his seventh win in the race and Werther (Hugh Bowman) the first Derby-QE II Cup-Champions & Chater treble since Vengeance Of Rain won it 11 years ago.
But this is the Group One, of all the season's majors, which has trapdoors all over it and we've seen surprise defeats frequently on Champions & Chater Cup day.
Viva Pataca won three but was also beaten as 1.3 favourite, Vengeance Of Rain and Designs On Rome both tasted defeat at odds-on and Ambitious Dragon met his Waterloo over the 2,400m when he was at his peak.
So, what seems obvious doesn't always work out in this race and the trick for Werther is the tempo.
Bowman did signal after the Derby that he would be concerned about Werther at 2,400m because he had been quite keen in the four-year-old events, which were not all that fast-run. The QE II provided proof of his assessment that a faster pace would suit better but the Champions & Chater will present the opposite problem - coming from a furious 2,000m into what will be the usual stop-start pace over 2,400m.
The favourite's stablemate Helene Happy Star (Karis Teetan) led throughout in the Queen Mother Memorial Cup last year and was competing in the crazy early speed in the QE II Cup, so he has the weapons to roll to the front comfortably and take up the running.
Ambitious Champion may be comfortable to sit at his outside, as per his winning pattern in this year's Queen Mother Memorial Cup, but Helene Happy Star will have control.
In a perfect world, Bowman would slot Werther onto Helene Happy Star's back in the box seat until the serious work began and he still may do that. The danger comes if the leader slows and that makes Werther overrace, compromising his chance to run out the 2,400m strongly, but it's a risk he faces no matter where he positions.
If he relaxes, Werther should win, if he doesn't then the numbers go up in the air and there are probably five or six chances, including the favourite's three stablemates.
With the benefit of the lead, Helene Happy Star must be a chance, Victory Magic (Zac Purton) showed a great turn of foot in both the Derby and his Class Two win, and Designs On Rome (Joao Moreira) has been back in the field and outrun twice at 2,400m but his form is holding up well enough to give him a chance.