Home support could not raise their level at Euro 2012, where they lost to nil against both England and France and needed goals from Shevchenko for a 2-1 comeback victory over Sweden.

Ukraine’s first post-Shevchenko game,  a home friendly with the Czech Republic last month, ended goalless, which means that no player in the current squad has scored in the past five internationals.

It is worth pointing out that Ukraine’s world ranking of 39 underestimates them. This always happens with countries that recently hosted a major tournament, simply by virtue of the fact that they did not have to go through qualifying for that tournament and so their ability to collect rankings points diminished. Even so, Ukraine would struggle to get into the top 30 at the moment.

England should win, although it may not be by a wide margin. Hodgson has brought organisation more than excitement to the England set-up, which is not a criticism given how little time he had to settle into the job before Euro 2012 and the  difficult opposition he has faced.

Until last night’s match in Moldova, Hodgson hadn’t played one of the minnows of European  soccer, and yet he had not lost in 90 minutes’ play in seven matches against teams currently ranked no higher than 40. His record in those seven matches was  five wins and  two draws (including the 0-0 match against Italy at Euro 2012 that ultimately led to England being knocked out on penalties).

England scored more than one goal in just two of those seven games, however, and wide-margin wins are unlikely to become the norm under Hodgson.
As the score went over 2.5 goals only twice in those seven games and England kept a clean sheet in four (the only teams that scored against them were ranked in the top 20), under 2.5 goals looks a good bet.

Hodgson’s tactics may also be influenced by the paucity of attacking options. With Wayne Rooney  and Andy Carroll injured, he was left with Jermain Defoe,  Daniel Sturridge  and Danny Welbeck  in the striker department. All three have scored recently when given the chance to represent their country, but their ability to lead the line at international level is still open to question.

All three like to use their speed and receive the ball beyond the back line, but opportunities to do so may be limited by a deep-lying Ukraine defence. Scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 to England are worth considering.

In today’s two qualifying games, Denmark stand out as a good-value home bet against the Czech Republic. Having been drawn in the toughest group at Euro 2012, Denmark did well to beat Holland and push Germany and Portugal all the way before losing to late goals. 

Serbia have a sporting chance of an away victory against Scotland and are worth backing on the handicap. Scotland have yet to beat a higher-ranked nation in a competitive match during Craig Levein’s  three-year reign and, Serbia are capable of stepping up on a disappointing qualifying campaign for Euro 2012.

In the second set of qualifiers on Tuesday,  look for over 2.5 goals in Scotland vs Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Latvia and Greece vs Lithuania.

TOP 5 BETS

1 Denmark home win
   Good value against Czech Republic

2 Serbia on handicap
   Should get something in Scotland

3 Croatia on handicap
   Tough opponents for Belgium

4 Norway home win
   Home form remains a strength

5 Russia on handicap
   Israel are weaker at home than in the past
 

SHORTLIST

Denmark, Serbia, Croatia, Norway, Cyprus, Russia