You Bet: Low-scoring options best if the money's on England against Estonia
San Marino romp a boost for Hodgson's men, but Estonia tough enough to restrict goal flow
England did the hard part in Euro 2016 qualifying with last month's opening victory in Switzerland and, having thrashed San Marino on Thursday night, they face another minnow in Estonia tomorrow.
This should be win number three, setting Roy Hodgson's squad well on the way to the finals in France.
As usual, punters will be looking for more attractive odds than those available for the straight England win and one option is to oppose a wide-margin victory for Hodgson's side. The only big away wins for England under the current manager have been against San Marino (8-0) and Moldova (5-0), both of whom rank well outside the world's top 100.
Estonia fall into the category of a team who are competent enough to keep the match tight and could cause problems if England are complacent
Estonia fall into the category of a team who are competent enough to keep the match tight and could cause problems if England are complacent. The Netherlands discovered that in World Cup qualifying when only a last-minute Robin van Persie penalty saved them from a 2-1 defeat in Estonia, even though Arjen Robben had put them ahead after two minutes.
Hodgson has made England an efficient outfit against the lesser nations. They have won 11 out of 15 against teams ranked outside the world's top 30, with no defeats, but only seven of the 15 have been by two goals or more and five of those were against San Marino and Moldova.
Under 2.5 goals might be a good bet. England's only away competitive away games with over 2.5 goals during Hodgson's reign have been against San Marino and Moldova.
The best correct-score options are 1-0 or 2-0 to England, as an away win is the most likely result and Hodgson likes a clean sheet on the road. England have shut out the hosts in five of their seven competitive away games under Hodgson and conceded only one goal in the other two.
Scotland, who have improved markedly in the past year, rate a good home bet tonight against Georgia. Gordon Strachan, appointed manager early last year, took a while to turn around their fortunes, but they have not lost to a lower-ranking nation since an early home defeat by Wales and they have beaten several good teams.
Since last summer Scotland's only defeats have been against Germany, England and Belgium and they have beaten Croatia twice, Poland and Norway. All of those teams are ranked higher than Georgia, who can often be beaten by a single goal - on average, they fail to score in about half of their matches and have not scored twice in a competitive game since a 6-2 defeat by Bulgaria five years ago.
One of the more intense rivalries in this weekend's fixtures is Romania v Hungary and the hosts look a good bet to come out on top. Just over a year ago, Romania had a 3-0 home victory over the same opponents in World Cup qualifying and the gap does not appear to have narrowed since then.
In the same group, Greece can bounce back with a good result in Finland. It is difficult to get an accurate measure of how good - or bad - Finland are, but their only notable result in recent years against a team capable of going to finals tournaments was a 1-1 in Spain 18 months ago.
Looking further ahead, Romania also look a good bet on the handicap in their away match against Finland on Tuesday night.
Also on Tuesday, Portugal look vulnerable away to Denmark. The hosts are tough to beat, while Portugal lost 1-0 at home to Albania last month and, like Spain, appear to be suffering from a crisis of confidence.
