Diego Costa makes Chelsea favourites over West Brom
The Blues have won all seven matches this season in which the Spanish striker has scored
With Chelsea on a seemingly unstoppable march to the English Premier League title, the player of the year is likely to be drawn from their ranks and one of the prime candidates is Diego Costa after his start to the season.
Strikers generally have the most difficulty in making an immediate impact, but Costa has 10 goals in just nine appearances. Jose Mourinho's team have won all seven games when he has scored, along with a win and a draw (against Manchester City) in the two matches where he failed.
A striker of Costa's class was the most obvious missing link last season and, with playmaker Cesc Fabregas also recruited, it is easy to understand Chelsea's improvement. They are averaging 2.55 goals per game, up from 1.87 last season; Costa has scored 36 per cent of them.
A striker of Costa's class was the most obvious missing link last season and, with playmaker Cesc Fabregas also recruited, it is easy to understand Chelsea's improvement
The one difficulty is how to manage Costa's fragility. The striker has been plagued by hamstring problems and if they worsen as the season wears on, that could hurt Costa's chance of personal honours and may prove the biggest threat to Chelsea's title ambitions.
Mourinho will have been pleased that Costa did not play for Spain over the international break, which means he has not appeared since scoring the winner at Liverpool two weeks ago.
Assuming he and Fabregas are fit, Chelsea should go marching on Saturday at home to West Brom. Chelsea have won five out of five at home this season with a goal difference of 13-3. Six of Costa's goals have been at Stamford Bridge and he gives them a great chance of covering the handicap. Apart from the 2-1 victory at Liverpool, Chelsea have won every match in which Costa has scored by at least two goals.
The other factor is their increasingly secure defence. Costa plays a part here too as he is a tireless harrier of defences as well as such a threat that he pushes the opposing team backwards.
But the improvement in Chelsea's defensive record was evident last season. They have achieved 10 shutouts in 14 home league games in 2014 and, with their goals tally now increasing, that gives handicap backers the double whammy.
Saido Berahino's pace will be a threat, but otherwise West Brom should be contained. The visitors have scored 13 goals this season but only two of those were against top-half teams and they have failed to score four times out of five in that category.
For correct-score backers at bigger odds, 2-0 and 3-0 look the best options.
The big-six clash on Saturday is Arsenal v Manchester United, but it is difficult to judge because of their below-par form. Both have won only four of their first 11 and neither have beaten a big-six side - Arsenal have two draws and one defeat, United one draw and one defeat.
United have won just one out of 12 against big-six sides since Sir Alex Ferguson's departure, although Arsenal have not been much better in that period with three wins out of 13.
Liverpool are another risky big-six team at odds-on away to Crystal Palace on Sunday. Although the Reds have won three out of five against bottom-half teams this season, the continued absence of Daniel Sturridge raises serious doubt as they have won just two out of eight without him. Palace might be worth chancing at big odds.
The most solid bets are Newcastle and Stoke at home to the bottom two, QPR and Burnley. Neither of the visitors have won on the road while Newcastle and Stoke are in the top seven on recent form.
