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Liverpool needed a replay to overcome Bolton Wanderers in round four. They face a tricky fifth round tie at Crystal Palace. Photo: AFP
Opinion
You Bet
by Nick Pulford
You Bet
by Nick Pulford

You Bet: Manchester United and Arsenal could be vulnerable to FA Cup upsets

Only three remain of Premier League's big six and it is no easy task facing them in the last 16

Nick Pulford
Nick Pulford
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Shocks came thick and fast in the last round of the FA Cup and that has left only three members of the Premier League big six - Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United - going into this weekend's fifth round.

The biggest shock this time would be United losing away to League One side Preston, but it is not unthinkable. Preston are probably more like a Championship side in terms of passing and overall ability and have lost only two out of 20 at home in all competitions.

United lost to a team of similar class (MK Dons) in the League Cup and, although that gave Louis Van Gaal a valuable lesson about the competitiveness of English football, they flirted with danger against non-league Cambridge in the last round.

Liverpool are more than capable of winning at Crystal Palace but they are not that appealing at the odds after twice coming unstuck at Selhurst Park in the past year

Next on the shock list would be Arsenal losing at home to Middlesbrough, who won at Manchester City in the last round. Most of Arsenal's problems come against elite sides but it is only recently that they have started to keep more clean sheets and they are not a completely safe bet at short odds. Over 2.5 goals is more appealing.

Liverpool are more than capable of winning at Crystal Palace but they are not that appealing at the odds after twice coming unstuck at Selhurst Park in the past year.

Late last season they threw away a three-goal lead in the 3-3 that effectively ended their title chase and in November they produced their worst away performance of the season with a 3-1 defeat against Palace.
Arsenal overcame Brighton & Hove Albion in round four and go up against high-flying Middlesbrough in the fifth round. Photo: AP
The next-best side left is West Ham and they have the right profile to do well. Their league form this season has been solid and they have plenty of goal threat (joint-sixth for goals scored at home and joint-fifth away), which is a crucial factor in cup competitions. The FA Cup is almost a free card to play for Sam Allardyce, as the resurgence of Tottenham and Liverpool in the league makes European qualification unlikely that way and there is no danger of relegation.

In the first half of the season a trip to West Brom would have looked a much easier tie for Allardyce's team than it does now, given the hosts' much-improved form under new manager Tony Pulis.

Pulis has lost only one of his first six games in charge of West Brom

Pulis has lost only one of his first six games in charge of West Brom (that defeat was against Tottenham, the best opponent they've faced) and Wednesday's 2-0 win over Swansea was the clearest sign yet that his methodology is getting through.

Taking the view that West Brom may end the season much closer to West Ham than they are now, Pulis' side are the handicap pick.

Stoke, five points behind West Ham in 10th in the Premier League, might also fancy their chances of a Cup run, but have a reasonably tough task away to Blackburn.
Manchester United overcame Cambridge United at the second time of asking. They meet League One Preston North End in the fifth round. Photo: AFP
Backing the Premier League side on the handicap looks the call. Stoke are not a free-scoring side, which reduces confidence in their outright win prospects, but their only blanks on the road this season have been at Southampton, Liverpool and Arsenal. If they get on the scoresheet at Blackburn, they will have a decent chance of a draw at least.

Aston Villa v Leicester pairs the worst two teams in the Premier League over the past few months. Neither can be relied on, even if they put out their strongest line-ups, but Leicester's scoring record is good (two blanks in their last 10 games) and that gives them a reasonable chance on the handicap against Villa, whose woes cost Paul Lambert his job.

Aston Villa v Leicester pairs the worst two teams in the Premier League over the past few months. Neither can be relied on

The only tie not involving a Premier League club is Derby v Reading and it may offer the best bet on the programme. Derby have already beaten the visitors twice this season without conceding a goal and their overall home record is strong under Steve McClaren.

Teams that produce one Cup upset often repeat the trick and on home territory Bradford will fancy their chances of taking the scalp of Sunderland, following their remarkable victory at Chelsea in the last round.

Sunderland have won three and drawn one of their Cup games against lower-league opposition this season but they are hardly a good bet after Tuesday's 2-0 home defeat by QPR left them with only three wins in their last 11 games.

SHORTLIST:

West Brom, Ipswich, Monchengladbach

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: United and Arsenal are flirting with danger
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