Look past short-price favourites in bets on Euro 2016 qualifying
The Euro 2016 qualifiers continue over the weekend with the usual spate of short-priced favourites headed by Scotland at home to newcomers Gibraltar, whose first four competitive internationals have resulted in 21 goals conceded and none scored. Not surprisingly, Scotland are 1.001 favourites, emphasising that anything less than a clear-cut victory is unthinkable.
More interesting for punters are the matches where the teams are closely matched and one of those is Ireland v Poland, in the same group as Scotland. Assuming Scotland win, and group favourites Germany do the same away to Georgia tomorrow, a home victory for Ireland over current leaders Poland would put four teams together on 10 points in group D.
A home victory for Ireland over current leaders Poland would put four teams together on 10 points in group D
This promises to be the most hard-fought of the nine qualifying groups and already Ireland and Poland have shown their quality with good results against world champions Germany. Perhaps there was a World Cup hangover for Germany but, even allowing for some underperformance, it was no mean feat to take points off them.
Ireland drew 1-1 away to Germany thanks to a stoppage-time equaliser and it must have been disappointing that they were unable to build on that valuable point when they lost 1-0 in Scotland last time. Their potential advantage is that they have played those two difficult away games and have more home matches left than their rivals, but they must make that count against Poland.
Although Ireland have shown signs of improvement under Martin O'Neill, the concern is that they have lost all their recent home games against teams with any semblance of quality - Sweden, Serbia, Turkey, Portugal. Poland sit higher in the Fifa rankings than all of those teams except Portugal, which suggests Ireland will have to improve.
Poland have the look of an up-and-coming team with a good blend of experience, mainly in defence, and young attacking talents. Six players in the team that beat Germany are aged 26 or under and they have developed into a dynamic outfit under Adam Nawalka, whose team have scored in their last six matches and will have a good chance if they get on the scoresheet tomorrow. Poland rate the pick on the handicap.
Northern Ireland also have a big match at home to Finland. Group F leaders Romania are set to push on with home victory over the Faroe Islands, but Northern Ireland will stay close in second place if they win and potentially the gap back to third-placed Hungary could widen to four or five points.
The sole defeat for Northern Ireland in four qualifiers was away to Romania and they owe their good position to away wins over Hungary and Greece, supposedly their main rivals for second place. Their weakness is a lack of goals - just six in four qualifiers - but the same goes for Finland, who won 3-1 in the Faroe Islands but have managed only one goal in their other three qualifiers.
Inevitably, under 2.5 goals is short odds and perhaps the correct score is the way to go - a goalless draw or 1-0 to Northern Ireland look the best options.
Hungary v Greece is the other big match in group F, with pressure on the hosts to stay in touch with Northern Ireland and Greece facing the prospect of falling out of contention for a place in the finals. Greece have had more than a decade of defying the doubters, but they look in serious decline now, having managed only one goal and one point in this qualifying campaign, and they hit rock bottom in their last match with a 1-0 home defeat by the Faroe Islands.
Hungary have scored just one goal in each of their qualifiers but they are a fairly solid outfit, having drawn 1-1 in Romania, and rate the handicap pick.
Italy are facing a battle in group H, lying second on goal difference behind Croatia and just a point ahead of Norway, but they can make their position more secure with victory in Bulgaria. Italy's form is not bad, with three wins and a home draw against Croatia so far, and they should beat Bulgaria, who have already lost to Croatia (home) and Norway (away).
Croatia are fairly short odds against Norway and that probably reflects the true gulf between the sides, with the hosts ranked 19th in the world by Fifa and Norway 70th. This is a difficult place to visit and Croatia usually dominate if they get on top, with seven of their last eight competitive home wins having been achieved by a margin of at least two goals. That makes Croatia worth backing on the handicap.
