Best football bets of the weekend: strong Arsenal and safety-first Chelsea are value
The Gunners have not lost a half-time lead all year going into their FA Cup semi-final against Reading, while Jose Mourinho will have the Blues primed to fend off Manchester United
Two matches starting 10 minutes apart on Saturday night hold the key to Arsenal's trophy ambitions, as they face Reading in the FA Cup semi-finals while Chelsea host Manchester United in the English Premier League.
The Gunners' best hope of silverware lies in their bid to complete back-to-back FA Cup triumphs but Arsene Wenger's side still have an outside chance of landing the league title thanks to their run of form this year.
On the first day of the new year, three days before starting the defence of their FA Cup crown, Arsenal lost 2-0 to Southampton in the Premier League and at that stage they were only sixth in the table, 13 points behind leaders Chelsea. Since then, however, they have been defeated only twice more, away to neighbours Tottenham in the Premier League and disastrously at home to Monaco in the Champions League.
The Gunners have been highly effective against much lesser quality. Every defeat this season has been against a side from the Champions League or the top half of the Premier League
Remarkably, they have won every other game during that run (16 in all competitions) and for their last draw you have to go back all the way to December 21 when a last-minute equaliser pegged them back to 2-2 away to Liverpool in the Premier League.
Reading will be no pushover, with their astute coach Steve Clarke sure to have a well-thought-out plan to combat the Arsenal attack, but it would be a surprise if the Gunners did not complete victory in 90 minutes.
For a start, no team has shut out Arsenal since the defeat by Southampton on January 1 and they have been held to a single goal only in the two losses to Tottenham and Monaco and in last week's 1-0 Premier League win at Burnley.
It is also worth noting that the Gunners have been highly effective against much lesser quality. Every defeat this season has been against a side from the Champions League or the top half of the Premier League. Their last failure to beat a team below that level was the 2-2 home draw with Hull on October 18.
A notable factor in Arsenal's run of wins this year is that they scored early, putting themselves in the driving seat and bringing their possession game into play. Fourteen of their last 16 wins have been after a half-time lead and the best bet might be an Arsenal double on the HaFu.
Chelsea v Manchester United holds more interest now that the visitors have found the form that might make them title challengers again next season. The gap between the two teams has narrowed in recent weeks, with United a point better than Chelsea over the past 10 games.
Jose Mourinho is a master of the big games, however, with a policy of going more bravely for three points at home.
Chelsea have won two out of three this season at home to other Big Six teams, having won five out of five in that category last season, and they look decent value to beat United. The imponderable is whether Mourinho will go safety first at home as a draw would be an acceptable result.
The Reds make little appeal at the odds as they are less reliable - among the sides they have failed to beat this season are Hull, Newcastle and Sunderland, as well as Bolton and Blackburn in the FA Cup (all without scoring).
Liverpool also lost 1-0 at home to Villa in the league, before winning 2-0 in the reverse fixture, and an upset is far from out of the question for a Tim Sherwood-inspired Villa side.
