Leicester looking less likely to slip up as Spurs have all to do
Seven points clear at the top of the table, the unlikely story of the season could become more of a reality as Tottenham play catch-up facing United at home on Sunday
The odds show that Tottenham have only a slightly better chance of victory than Leicester on Sunday night, which demonstrates the difficulty Spurs face in closing the seven-point gap opened by the English Premier League leaders.
Leicester have a more difficult final three games if the race is still alive by then, but for now they are making the most of every opportunity
Both teams have around a 50 per cent chance of a win and Tottenham need to defy those odds on a regular basis over the last six games if they are to have any hope of catching the leaders. They will be similar odds away to Stoke next week and winning one of their next two games, which is the expectation implied by the odds, will not be enough unless Leicester collapse under the pressure.
Leicester have a more difficult final three games if the race is still alive by then, but for now they are making the most of every opportunity and putting the pressure on their rivals.
After Tottenham could only draw away to Liverpool last week, Leicester ticked off another potentially tricky game with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Southampton that took them to 13 points out of the last 15 – five more than Tottenham at this crucial stage of the season.
Tottenham are not doing anything wrong, but quite simply Leicester are doing nearly everything right with the prospect of a magical title triumph looming ever larger.
It is remarkable to think that only 11 months ago Leicester went to Sunderland needing a point to complete their great escape from relegation (which they did with a goalless draw) and on Sunday they return to the same ground as the best team in the Premier League.
Over the course of the last 38 games (the tail end of last season and the first 32 games of this campaign) Leicester have accumulated 82 points. That figure would be a title-winning tally this season, although critics of the Premier League’s current quality might point out that the past four champions all had a higher total.
When they met Leicester last May, Sunderland were also in the process of staving off relegation and, in what has become an annual ritual, they are in the same desperate situation again. They currently lie third-bottom, four points from safety, and while Leicester have built spectacularly on last season’s late run of form, Sunderland have stood still.
Over the past 38 games, Sunderland have taken only 36 points – well under half of Leicester’s total and below the generally accepted cut-off of 40 required to ensure survival.
The contrast in form suggests Leicester might be underestimated at the odds again for Sunday's match, and certainly a Sunderland win looks difficult. They have won only eight of those last 38 league games and this season have beaten only two top-half teams in 16 attempts, losing 11.
The picture looks even worse higher up the table, with Sunderland having lost eight out of 10 against top-six teams. Leicester, by contrast, have won nine out of 10 (with one draw) against bottom-six teams, including a 4-2 home victory over Sunderland on the opening day that set the tone for how this season would unfold for both clubs.
Sam Allardyce will make sure Sunderland scrap for everything and will take some hope from Leicester’s recent low-scoring tendencies, but the greater quality of Claudio Ranieri’s side makes them the bet at the odds.
Home advantage means Tottenham’s chance of success is rated about the same as Leicester’s even though they face much tougher opposition in Manchester United, but they will have to be at their best to secure three points.
Tottenham have won only three out of nine in head-to-heads with other top-six teams this season (two out of four at home), while United’s record in this type of match (three wins and only one defeat out of seven) is better than their overall standard.
United have the best clean-sheet record (four out of seven) in top-six head-to-heads whereas Tottenham are the only team without one, which sets this up as a contest between the home attack and the away defence.
Tottenham were shut out at Old Trafford on the opening weekend but their attack has become more potent as the season has gone on and their home win percentage is high when they score. They look the team to back on that basis, in the knowledge that another failure to score against United could deal a fatal blow to their title hopes.
The rest of the Premier League programme looks difficult and this might be a weekend to take a chance on one or two longshots. Norwich, Swansea and Watford stand out as possibles.
