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A Trump administration in the US could send bitcoin prices spiking

Study predicts bitcoin transactions could exceed US$92 billion by the end of the year

PUBLISHED : Monday, 04 July, 2016, 9:41pm
UPDATED : Tuesday, 05 July, 2016, 12:48pm

The transaction volume for bitcoin is predicted to more than triple this year, helped by the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency, according to a market study released this week.

The price of the digital currency could climb in the event of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election, which some market commentators expect to lead to market turmoil.

"If Donald Trump becomes president of the U.S., there is the very real prospect of turmoil on world markets — the Economist Intelligence Unit ranks his presidency within the Top 10 global risks," says Windsor Holden, head of forecasting & consultancy at Juniper Research. "However, bitcoin trading would thrive in such an environment, at least until the impact on major fiat currencies becomes clear."

The study, "Will Bitcoins Bite Back," published by Juniper Research, predicts the total volume of all bitcoin transactions may exceed US$92 billion by the end of the year. It was less than US$27 billion in 2015.

Reasons for this predicted spike include uncertainty over the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union, weakness in China's economy and an upcoming change to bitcoin which will halve the number of coins created through the "mining" process. This is expected to tighten the supply of new bitcoins and support the price.

The cryptocurrency has fallen since hitting multiyear highs of more than US$760 per bitcoin in mid-June. On Monday, it was trading at around US$677 per bitcoin. Year-to-date, bitcoin has grown by 56 per cent.

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