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Biologists create ‘universal algorithm’ to forecast disaster that could help stock investors cash in ahead of a market crisis

A research team of biologists from China and Japan use experiments with mice to show how impending collapses can be predicted in unrelated fields ranging from financial markets to climatic systems using a one-size-fits-all model

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The new mathematical model claims to filter out environmental ‘interference’ that has handicapped previous methods of identifying tipping events to forecast future trends. Photo: EPA
Stephen Chenin Beijing

Biologists are among the last group of people that investors head to for financial advice, but a new study from China suggests they may be able to predict where a market is heading more accurately than many wealth managers.

Specifically, this hinges on a universal algorithm created by a team of research biologists from China and Japan which they claim can detect tipping points and predict disasters ranging from financial market crashes to possible regime change.

Their findings were based on experiments conducted on lab rats exposed to toxic gases.

In their paper published recently in the journal Scientific Reports , the team demonstrated how the financial mayhem that stemmed from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and other such momentous changes, could be forecast in the same way and with as much accuracy as the time of death of a mouse exposed to a poisonous gas.

The algorithm detected mathematically identical signals hours before the death of the mouse and before the collapse of the US financial services firm.

It was intended to break the barrier between financial analysis and biological science by developing a one-size-fits-all way of forecasting negative events in multiple fields, the team said.

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