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Inside Out & Outside Ini

In wide-ranging columns appearing twice a week, David Dodwell, executive director of the Hong Kong-Apec Trade Policy Group, strives to understand and describe the distinctive characteristics at the heart of Hong Kong's continuing competitive advantages. It promises to be a fascinating journey as he seeks to understand and describe the forces that have shaped and are changing Hong Kong, and the role it is playing for China and in the region as we move steadily closer to 2047. 

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  • It’s not just how we can produce and afford the electricity, but also how we ensure we don’t aggravate global warming and squeeze domestic water supplies
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Chocolate will stay expensive as the cocoa crop faces existential challenges while demand continues to surge, including from China. The most urgent task is to grow cocoa without harming the environment, and ensure that cocoa farmers can lift themselves out of poverty in the process.

Little was expected of the thousands of trade officials gathered in the UAE for the WTO ministerial conference, and they delivered just that. At a time when pressure for reform and the need for global cooperation are mounting, the WTO is still struggling to get out of its own way.

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Hongkongers cashing out their Mandatory Provident Fund last year and this year are likely to get less than they put in. Such forced savings should at least provide a minimum of financial security into old age

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The face of the 1 billion-strong obesity epidemic is changing, with rates surging across the developing world and growing faster globally for the young than for adults.

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As about half the world’s population goes to the polls this year, it’s worth asking exactly how democracy is delivering better than autocracies. Human rights and civil liberties are nice, but the true value of democratic politics must ultimately be judged by whether it delivers a full stomach.

While generative AI holds transformative promise for some, for others it heralds large-scale job losses and widespread ethical and security challenges. Even if this technological revolution lives up to its potential, it is clear its benefits will take years to reach consumers and firms in poorer countries.

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The city has had a rough ride and some things have faded, like the dominance of Western business leaders in Hong Kong’s executive suites, but the city is stepping up Greater Bay Area integration and making new connections with formerly neglected markets. Dramatic change is afoot.

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Donald Trump’s threat to encourage Russia to attack alliance members which are failing to ‘pay their bills’ has horrified leaders across the West. As the need for increased defence spending rises, pressure is being piled on national budgets that are already stretched thin.

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The recent explosion of outrage over widespread illegal development in Hong Kong is a reminder of the extent of disdainful disregard for the law. Such abuse undermines respect for the rule of law, attracts corruption and calls into question the government’s integrity.

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With prospects of a Trump 2.0 looming, the WTO zombified and experts warning of mega threats and a ‘polycrisis’, the absence of cooperation makes one fear the worst.

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Global crisis in trust in governments, the media and even NGOs means mounting difficulties in garnering public support for economically important innovation and often-controversial social change.

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Innovation has allowed the Jockey Club to remain competitive and retain and glamour of the sport, despite three terrible pandemic years and the decline in horse racing betting globally.

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At a time when climate change, pandemic threats and technological changes are compounding the disruptive force of more conventional risks such as demographic change and political turmoil, there is good reason to marshal the serendipitous forces that surround us.

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With industrial policy interventions growing, the transparency provided by a new global tracker will enable organisations like the IMF and WTO to distinguish between the good and bad.

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2023 ended without the technical recession economists expected, but their warning of stagflation and a potentially crippling debt crisis should not be easily dismissed.

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The social media revolution has delivered a host of problems which appear to be damaging students’ capacity to learn. This is a concern as tech-driven smart jobs will require stronger literacy, numeracy and scientific competencies.

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The 2019 unrest and three pandemic years have delayed Hong Kong’s integration, diminished its importance and left much of its part in the bay area development plan unfulfilled. Time to dust off the plan and use it.

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Like previous climate conferences, Cop28 seems to revolve around missed targets, unfulfilled commitments and the increasingly grave consequences of our failures. But China, while still the worst polluter, is quietly and steadily making a planet-leading energy transition.

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Modern tyres are a chemical cocktail and scientists are realising that the microparticles they shed are actually quite harmful – to wildlife, the food chain and us.

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The sight of steadily falling rents in Hong Kong’s top shopping districts and high-end stores closing bodes ill. For Hong Kong to thrive requires a significant restructuring of the economy with less reliance on tourists and their retail spending interests.

Alleging slave labour and drugs smuggling, some American senators are zoning in on how the country’s de minimis rule benefits Chinese companies. But levying duties on low-value shipments will only punish consumers and small businesses.

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That the US and China reached agreements, however modest, on military communication and climate change, is cause for hope. Beyond the spotlight, it is the trust built among officials through various Apec working groups that makes the headline-grabbing agreements possible.

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Climate-induced lightning is becoming more frequent and powerful, triggering more wildfires, particularly in Siberia, Canada and Alaska, and releasing the carbon locked in permafrost.

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The world’s confidence in the US preference for civilised and consistent diplomatic engagement has yet to return. The possibility that Trump could return will make that even harder.

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Almost all of the world’s worst food crises are the products of or worsened by war – from Afghanistan, Myanmar, Sudan and Somalia, to Syria, Yemen and now, Gaza.

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Hong Kong has been awash in wine in recent weeks, but the city is an outlier as the wine industry deals with climate change’s effects and shifting tastes. Warmer weather is weighing on global production, and demand is slipping as Generation Z is increasingly averse to alcohol and other risky behaviours.

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Immigration rather than birth rates drives Hong Kong’s population, and the government should look to migrant flows for solutions to our demographic woes.

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While the US, Europe and Western media were distracted by Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza, China brought together leaders from the Global South to celebrate 10 years of the Belt and Road Initiative. This showcased Beijing’s commitment to building infrastructure in the name of peace and development.

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