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This Week in AsiaGeopolitics

As Maldives burns, lessons for China and India’s limited options

Delhi can’t afford to further alienate the president who is trying to play off regional leader against Beijing

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Policemen arrest former Maldives president and opposition leader Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, centre, after the government declared a 15-day state of emergency in Male, Maldives. Photo: AP
David Brewster

Attempts by the president of Maldives to crush the country’s democratic institutions is a tragedy for the tiny island state, but its implications go far beyond its shores.

We have seen Maldives President Abdulla Yameen, backed by his security forces, take complete power over the country. He has closed parliament, defied rulings from his country’s highest court and imprisoned his chief justice and any leaders that have dared to oppose him. In his “self-coup”, he has overridden the constitution and tried to destroy the rule of law. For years, Yameen has repeatedly tried to strike down lawful opposition against his rule. Whether he succeeds this time remains to be seen.

But these local political developments also have a broader impact. There is growing strategic rivalry among major powers across the Indian Ocean, and the Maldives is located squarely in the middle of it.

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Maldives President Abdulla Yameen declared a 15-day state of emergency, deepening the political crisis in the Indian Ocean nation. Photo: AFP
Maldives President Abdulla Yameen declared a 15-day state of emergency, deepening the political crisis in the Indian Ocean nation. Photo: AFP

Could foreign powers have been behind the coup? How might it affect the regional balance of power? What are the options of other countries to respond?

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There is no indication as yet that any of the big powers with interests in the region – India, the United States and China – played an active role in these events. But the outcome of the coup could have a major impact on them, and they are watching events closely.

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