Korea summit: is Kim Jong-un sincere? Here’s how to tell
When Kim Jong-un meets Moon Jae-in for their historic summit this week, the titles used to refer to each of the Koreas may be as significant as whether the armistice or denuclearisation appear on the agenda
As South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un head into a historic summit this week, the big question is how sincere Pyongyang is in efforts to achieve lasting peace. Here’s what to look out for in testing Kim’s sincerity.
First, and most simply, form matters. The South already achieved a victory of sorts in persuading Kim to come to the South (or more technically to the southern part of the demilitarised zone or DMZ) for the meeting rather than having Moon become the third South Korean president to venture to Pyongyang without a reciprocal visit. More important, however, will be the titles being used. North Korea always refers to itself as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK. But it insists on referring to its neighbour as south Korea (with a small s) rather than as the Republic of Korea or ROK. If the DPRK refers to Moon as president of the Republic of Korea, it would signal a willingness (finally) to treat the government in Seoul as a sovereign equal with the same level of respect it demands.
What’s on the summit agenda will be another test. Seoul has announced its desire to discuss a peace treaty with Pyongyang to replace the 65-year old armistice, and US President Donald Trump has given his “blessings” for Seoul to have such a discussion. Pyongyang in the past has refused to discuss this topic directly with Seoul, insisting that since South Korea was not a signatory to the armistice, it should not even have a seat at the table. Technically speaking, the armistice was signed by military officers representing the US/United Nations Command and the Chinese and North Korean People’s Armies – South Korean’s leader at the time, Rhee Syngman, refused to have his general sign since he did not want to stop fighting the North.
While Pyongyang usually acknowledges that the US and China should have a seat at the table, Washington’s long-standing position has been that the South must not only also be there but must have a leading role. The Four-Party Talks during the Clinton administration, aimed at replacing the armistice with a peace treaty, broke down over this. If the North is ready to finally acknowledge Seoul’s leading role in crafting a treaty to officially end the Korean war, this would be a significant policy shift and another important signal of Kim’s sincerity.
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A South Korean marine passes a screen showing Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in. Photo: AP
On Thursday, Moon said Pyongyang had dropped its long-held demand that the US withdraw its forces from the south in exchange for denuclearisation. However, it is likely that the North’s long-term goal remains the removal of US forces and its accompanying nuclear umbrella. If it has indeed dropped the demand it is presumably to serve its near-term interests – the lifting of US, UN Security Council, and ROK sanctions and the procurement of economic assistance.
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Kim, under his Byungjin policy, has promised his people both nuclear weapons and economic development. He has delivered on the first part; now he needs to show some progress on the latter. But what is he willing to give in return?
