Abacus | Libido, lost and found: why talk of Japan’s population decline is premature

The real trouble facing Japanese demographics is that Tokyo’s policies are inadvertently proving a remarkably effective contraceptive

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Elderly Japanese work out in a Tokyo park. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:00pm, 15 May 2017Updated: 1:39pm, 15 May 2017

Over the last month or so, the international media have been full of headlines about how the Japanese have lost their libido. Some blame cultural malaise, some an aversion to real human contact in a world increasingly dominated by virtual technologies. More prosaically, others point the finger at the ardour-dampening effects of economic insecurity. But whatever cause they cite, all draw the same conclusion: Japan’s low birth rate will lead inevitably to an irreversible decline in its population, and consequently in its economy.

According to many, the long decay has already begun. Japan’s population peaked at just over 128 million in 2010. Since then, the combination of an ageing population and one of the lowest fertility rates in the world – on average a Japanese woman can expect to have just 1.45 babies in her life – has meant that deaths have exceeded births. With mass immigration ruled out by politicians and public alike, the result has been a fall in Japan’s population over the last six years of almost 1.3 million.

A graph predicts Japan’s population decline.

According to official projections, the slump is set to continue. Last month, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research warned that Japan’s population was on track to fall to just 88 million by 2065, and to little more than 50 million by the end of the century. If the forecast is correct, many decades before then the economy will be in permanent recession. And long before that the Japanese government will be bankrupt, as the falling number of working-age taxpayers fails to generate enough revenue to support welfare payments to the growing share of elderly retirees.

JAPAN’S MILLENNIAL MEN DON’T DRINK, DON’T DRIVE, DON’T WORSHIP WORK – WHAT DO THEY DO?

There’s just one problem. The stories about Japan’s lost libido are all wrong, and the population forecasts likely to prove misleading. Japan’s women would be very happy to have more babies – enough to sustain the population above 100 million and to keep economic growth in positive territory. The trouble is that the government’s own policies have inadvertently proved a remarkably effective contraceptive.

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.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The real trouble facing Japanese demographics is that Tokyo’s policies are inadvertently proving a remarkably effective contraceptive

JAPAN’S MILLENNIAL MEN DON’T DRINK, DON’T DRIVE, DON’T WORSHIP WORK – WHAT DO THEY DO?

The real trouble facing Japanese demographics is that Tokyo’s policies are inadvertently proving a remarkably effective contraceptive