How Xi and Abe will interpret Trump’s North Korea call with Duterte
The US president’s leaked chat with Philippine leader sends different messages to China and Japan – and not only about the location of US nuclear submarines
More importantly, it created a ruckus in the international security community, as Trump, according to Business Insider, did the unthinkable: he revealed the locations of a number of US nuclear submarines. But the conversation was also insightful in other ways.
Second, by speaking candidly about the location of the two nuclear subs, Trump appears oblivious to security protocol yet again, even though he came to the White House accusing Hillary Clinton of inept handling of confidential emails.
One only seeks the advice of another country when it is clear that it is in the know. But Manila has had little or no interaction with China on the matter.
By making such a candid admission, Duterte has amplified the very weakness of his country and its membership in Asean.
Yet, against this background, Trump threw all caution to the wind and proceeded to talk to Duterte as if the advice of the latter was more important than the head of the Pacific Command or the US National Intelligence Council.
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In American parlance, it seems Trump just picked up the phone and “winged it”. It’s the pattern of a transactional presidency where almost anything goes – uncertainty is the “new normal”.
By adopting such a posture, the US slowly casts itself adrift internationally, since no one knows if it is feigning or not.
Similarly Xi must see Trump’s garrulous and unctuous behaviour as evidence that the US president is eager and easy to please.
Another conversation between Trump and Xi in April seems to underscore the point. Trump told the media several days after the Sino-US meeting that “after listening for 10 minutes [to Xi], I realised it’s not so easy” for China to influence North Korea. And just that fast, the US was ready to walk back its previous tough stance.
In other words, Trump can be easily led, or misled, on any issue, if Trump himself hasn’t become deluded by his constant claims of “fake news”, that is.
But Abe, the first Asian leader to meet with Trump, told him in January that North Korea’s economy was 90 per cent dependent on Chinese trade, and therefore, in the eyes of Japan, always subservient to China.
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But, as can be seen from the conversation between Trump and Duterte, the US president wasn’t sure if Abe was right about China. By bouncing the same issue off Duterte, Trump has sent a signal to Japan that the US doesn’t treat what Abe says as the proverbial “gold standard”. Perhaps US-Japan relations are not the baseline from which the White House will take its Asian strategy forward.
It seems clear that Trump will seek the view of all leaders, regardless of their expertise – from Duterte to Abe to Xi. And he will then confer with his military commanders.
It is an unorthodox decision-making style that will no doubt make world leaders a bit nervous every time Trump picks up the phone. ■
Phar Kim Beng is president of Echo Strategic Insight