Sino File | For US and China, the real friction over Taiwan is yet to come

Even if the United States and China can find a way out of their simmering trade dispute, the next topic that could provoke an ugly clash may already be upon them: Taiwan.

A string of recent events has served to highlight escalating tensions between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. These culminated in the past week in a series of tit-for-tat military displays in the Taiwan Strait.

On Wednesday, the People’s Liberation Army followed up its massive show of strength in the South China Sea a week earlier by heading to the strait – reportedly on the orders of Chinese President Xi Jinping – to carry out unexpected live-fire drills.

This was clearly a message to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who had herself only recently returned from watching her own navy simulate an invasion off the island’s east coast.

The PLA drills were intended to signal Beijing’s disapproval of the growing ties between the US and Taiwan. Beijing has become alarmed at signs that US President Donald Trump has been warming to the island’s cause since he came to office. Soon after his election he infuriated and unnerved Beijing by questioning Washington’s long-standing commitment to the “one China” policy and by breaking decades of diplomatic protocol to have a telephone conversation with Tsai, who leads the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. The “one China” principle requires Washington to forego official ties with the island.