Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has dominated Japanese politics ever since winning the national election in 2012 and returning from opposition for a second term in office. His supporters in the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) publicly suggested in the Japanese media this week that the party’s rules be changed again, so that Abe can contest for an unprecedented fourth consecutive term – effectively his fifth term as LDP president – and hence possibly continue as prime minister until 2024.
Abe, 64, is set to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister in November this year. This longevity makes him one of the most politically successful contemporary leaders among the world’s democracies. Extending his tenure would allow him to continue to enjoy his position as one of the world’s senior diplomatic figures and promote a greater international and strategic role for Japan.
Paratroopers of Japan's Ground Self-Defence Force during an exercise on January 13. Photo: AFP
Abe will also be able to extend his responsibility for the overall stewardship of what is still the world’s third-largest economy, continuing his stimulus policy marketed as “Abenomics”. Possibly the greatest motivation of all is that another term would give Abe more chance to pursue changes to Article 9 of the constitution and in doing so formally recognise the country’s Self-Defence Forces.
Abe’s success in retaining power at the 2014 and 2017 general elections has entrenched his dominance over the LDP’s various factions. Re-elected unopposed as party president for a second consecutive term in 2015, Abe’s factional supporters used his personal political authority to change the leadership regulations at the 2017 party conference, raising the number of consecutive terms the party president can serve to three from the previous maximum of two. Abe was then able to run again in the party leadership ballot last September, beating solo challenger Shigeru Ishiba to win a third term and remain prime minister until 2021.
Promoters of a fourth term for Abe, most prominently LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai and chairman of the LDP’s Diet Affairs Committee Hiroshi Moriyama, have stated at press conferences in Tokyo this week that Abe would be “hard to replace”. Nikai, who heads one the LDP’s seven factions, was one of the main backers for the change to party rules allowing Abe an extra term. As the Nikai faction does not have any likely presidential candidates, members from the rival Kishida and Ishiba factions have accused Nikai of pushing another term for Abe so he can remain secretary general.
Opinion polls consistently rank Shinjiro Koizumi, the 37-year-old son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, as the most popular choice for next LDP leader.
However, his rather superficial appeal is largely based on his youthful charisma, and nostalgia for the premiership of his widely popular father. Having only served so far as a junior parliamentary vice-minister, the seniority-obsessed hierarchy of the LDP factions do not consider that the younger Koizumi’s time has arrived.
Shinzo Abe speaks with Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Photo: Reuters
In response to the speculation this week, Abe was driven to publicly remark that “seeking a fourth term is prohibited by party regulation” and affirm that this would be his “last tenure”. This followed his reported statement last month that he “won’t run in the next election”.
Faction leaders who hope to succeed Abe – such as chairman of the LDP’s Policy Research Council and former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, chairwoman of the House of Representatives Budget Committee Seiko Noda, and former secretary general Shigeru Ishiba – would certainly try to block another term for him at the next LDP conference. The Hosoda faction, to which Abe belongs, is the largest in the LDP, but it lacks any likely successor because of his long-running dominance.
Much depends on the LDP’s results in local elections next month, and in elections for the Diet’s upper house, scheduled for July. Abe may also decide to simultaneously hold an early lower house election as well, which is not due until 2021 at the latest. This would repeat his previously successful strategy of holding snap elections for the lower house to take advantage of the still weakened state of the endemically splintered and divided opposition parties, the three largest of which are currently the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People, and the Japanese Communist Party.
Given how consistently poorly the range of opposition parties perform in opinion polls, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition is unlikely to lose its majorities in both houses of the Diet.
However, should the LDP suffer a significant loss of its current two-thirds majority, which it enjoys with the support of its coalition partner Komeito and smaller conservative parties and independents, any momentum towards a fourth term for Abe would be checked.
The lower house of the Diet, Japan's parliament. Photo: AFP
Recent legislation to allow more foreign workers and a planned increase in the consumption tax rate in October are proving unpopular policies. A referendum to change Article 9 would also face an uphill battle to win majority support. There are also lingering suspicions over past nepotism scandals which damaged Abe’s reputation, although he has always strongly denied any unlawful or inappropriate involvement.
Public opinion is therefore likely to be divided on Abe seeking another term. Conservatives would welcome the continuity, but it could become a reinvigorating cause for the opposition parties. Extending Abe’s term yet again could risk further alienating a generally politically apathetic electorate, who would be more inclined to appreciate a generational change to address the ongoing challenges of a stubbornly tepid economy and an ageing, decreasing population. ■
Craig Mark is a professor in the Faculty of International Studies, Kyoritsu Women’s University, Tokyo
