New Zealand’s foreign policy dilemma: remain independent or join ‘pillar 2’ of Aukus
- Involvement in Aukus pillar 2 – the sharing of information in defence technologies – does little to advance New Zealand’s independent foreign policy interest
- New Zealand shares a great deal politically with Aukus members, but not its framing of China as the only major threat to the liberal order
Strategy, as the great military thinker Carl von Clausewitz pointed out, is the process of effectively applying means to achieve clearly defined ends. But good strategy in global politics is easier said than done.
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Aukus consists of two key pillars. The first involves Australia acquiring eight to 10 nuclear-powered submarines from the US and Britain over the next three decades, at an estimated cost of between A$268 billion and A$368 billion (US$172-US$237 billion).
The second pillar involves sharing information in new cutting-edge defence technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and cyber capabilities.
Non-nuclear New Zealand was initially not involved in Aukus. But in March, Minister of Defence Andrew Little revealed the country was exploring an invitation from the US to join pillar two.
In late July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the “door is open” for New Zealand to engage with Aukus. So far, the Labour government has not come to a clear decision.
However, the Ministry of Defence has indicated that national security decisions start from the premise that “we take the world as it is, not how we would like it to be”.
In that case, New Zealand must carefully weigh global, regional and national trends to determine its relationship with the Aukus pact, whose strategic goal is not yet clearly defined.
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This is characterised by the intensifying rivalry between the US and China, and what is seen as a growing Chinese threat to the international rules-based order New Zealand depends on.
But this is an incomplete picture. China is an authoritarian state with global ambitions, but these should not be overblown.
The country’s rise to superpower status has been built on an outstanding trade performance in the global capitalist economy. And Beijing’s one-party state remains too heavily dependent on Western export markets to be a “systemic” threat to liberal democracies.
And increased globalisation means many of the political, economic and environmental challenges facing nations – including superpowers – transcend borders and cannot be resolved alone.
A major problem facing Aukus lies in its implicit assumption that the 40 or so countries comprising the vast Indo-Pacific region lack the agency and capacity to counter China’s domination.
Of course, Chinese regional and global assertiveness is real. But while those Indo-Pacific states remain wary of China, many do not see themselves as pawns in a global strategic contest between Beijing and Aukus.
In addition, several of these states have criticised Aukus for potentially fuelling nuclear proliferation through the Australian submarine deal. The region is already home to the 1986 South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone and the 1995 Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone treaties.
New Zealand shares many political similarities with Australia, Britain and the US, and it is important for Wellington to improve its defence capabilities.
But its distinctive world view is at odds with Aukus’ framing of China as the only major threat to the liberal order, and that the destiny of the Indo-Pacific will be decided by great power competition.
Involvement in Aukus pillar two looks like a poor strategy for New Zealand. It does little to advance its independent foreign policy interests, including a core commitment to strengthen the international rules-based order. And it could be interpreted in the Indo-Pacific as a retreat back to the Anglosphere.
While the issue is unlikely to be decided before the October election, a new government will soon face the prospect of making a potentially important decision on the direction of New Zealand’s foreign policy.