China seen as security threat by over 90% of Japanese, new survey shows

Some 88 per cent of respondents also said North Korea was a cause for concern, while 89 per cent identified Russia as a danger
The figures come as ‘no surprise’, observers in Japan say, given Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s increased regional aggression

Japan

Julian Ryall

Published: 4:00pm, 9 Apr 2024

Why you can trust SCMP

More than nine in every 10 Japanese now feel the nation’s security is threatened by China, according to a new survey – a rise observers attribute to Beijing’s increased aggression and the rising potential for a regional conflict.

The results of the annual survey carried out by the Yomiuri newspaper in February and March found that 92 per cent of respondents felt that China was a threat to Japan’s security – up from 86 per cent a year ago and 81 per cent in 2022.

Some 88 per cent said North Korea was also a cause for concern, an increase of one percentage point from last year’s survey and up from 72 per cent in 2022.

A test-fire of what North Korean state media said was the country’s new “Hwasong-16B” hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile is seen at an undisclosed location in North Korea. Photo: KCNA/dpa

Russia, meanwhile, was identified as a danger by 89 per cent of respondents, up from 84 per cent last year and 82 per cent in 2022. In 2020, before its invasion of Ukraine, just 57 per cent of those surveyed said Russia was a national security threat.

“I do not think these numbers come as any great surprise,” said Sumie Kawakami, a lecturer at Yamanashi Gakuin University southwest of Tokyo. “North Korea has been firing a lot of missiles recently, and I find it interesting that [national broadcaster] NHK used to refer to these launches as of ‘projectiles’, but now they are simply calling them missiles.”

“There has been a realisation that North Korea is being more provocative and that these are missiles that can cause a lot of damage,” she added.

Kawakami said it was “inevitable” that there would be greater public concern surrounding Russia since the conflict in Ukraine had stunned the Japanese people and news about the ongoing fighting in Eastern Europe was unavoidable.

“The figures for China also reflect the alarm of ordinary people, although I am a little surprised it has gone as high as 92 per cent,” she said.

Rescuers work at the site of a rocket attack on a residential area in Kharkiv, northeastern Ukraine, on Sunday amid the Russia’s invasion. Coverage of the European conflict is unavoidable in Japan, observers say. Photo: EPA-EFE

“China has for many years been aggressive towards Japan and other countries in the region, but I think what has happened in Ukraine has shown people here what could happen if China attacked Taiwan,” Kawakami said. “They worry that Japan would get drawn into fighting, and what we are seeing on television in Ukraine could happen here as well.”

Ken Kato, a businessman from Tokyo and paid-up member of the Liberal Democratic Party, said he believed it was a “positive” that more people were expressing concern about the security challenges that the nation faces.

“People have not been taking these threats seriously for a long time, and they have just become worse,” he said. “It is a positive thing that people are waking up to just how dangerous this region is.”

Kato described North Korea as the “biggest threat”, he said it was a “dictatorship where Kim [Jong-un] could wake up one morning and decide that he wanted to launch missiles with nuclear warheads at Japan and his generals would do as they were told. That, to me, is very dangerous”.

For Kato, a conflict over Taiwan is also a cause for concern as it would dramatically disrupt international trade, not least food imports. Japan does not produce enough food to feed its own population, making it vulnerable to disruptions or potentially even a blockade, he said.

Why Asia largely backs Japan’s defence boost despite its ‘history of aggression’

According to the Yomiuri poll, 71 per cent of Japanese are in favour of improving the nation’s military capabilities, down a single percentage point from last year, while a less enthusiastic 54 per cent support the government’s plans to increase defence-related spending to 43 trillion yen (US$283.6 billion) over five years to 2027.

“I am very much in favour of greater defence spending because our present budget is not at the 2 per cent of gross domestic product level that is becoming the international norm, and we definitely need to be at that level,” Kato said.

Kawakami admitted being torn on the issue, describing herself as “an old-school pacifist who supports the constitution on the issue of defence” – but said she was being swayed by the realities facing the nation.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right) at the “Hwasong-16B” test-firing last month. Some Japanese worry that Kim will “wake up one morning and decide that he wanted to launch missiles with nuclear warheads at Japan”. Photo: KCNA/dpa

“I feel that Japan needs to do more … Japan should be able to play a greater role internationally, and I do not believe there is enough discussion taking place at the moment about the challenges that we face,” she said.

“The government is busy dealing with its own internal crises, so there is no active discussion taking place about the security challenges that are going on around us.”

Kawakami further highlighted the potential impact of a second Donald Trump presidency on Japan.

“We need to start asking questions now about what happens if a more isolationist US administration opts to play a lesser role in the region, what happens if the US nuclear umbrella is gone, and lots of other questions,” she said.

“Right now, no one is talking about those issues, and we really need to start.”