As Hong Kong gears up for the handover's 15th anniversary celebrations, and the inauguration of a new chief executive, it is politics - not the economy - that matters. Though Beijing may have long insisted that Hong Kong remain an 'economic city' not a 'political' one, history shows this may be wishful thinking. The city's politics have proved far more challenging than Beijing could have imagined.
In Hong Kong's short history as a special administrative region, local politics has been difficult, especially when it comes to the office of the chief executive. Scholars credited Beijing for being, by and large, hands-off during the early years, thus dispelling pre-handover anxieties.
The first chief executive Tung Chee-hwa's low popularity has been attributed to his reform agenda and his government's inadequacies in responding to crises. But what really led to his resignation was a culmination of events, including his bad relationship with the press. He shunned it, feared it - and basically barricaded himself inside his political straitjacket. The media's hostility towards him was not only unprecedented; it has never been as bad since.
Donald Tsang Yam-kuen came into the top office determined not to follow in Tung's footsteps, which explains the way he ran his government: carefully and mindful of the status quo. Whatever misgivings people have now, it was medicine in the years following Tung. Tsang had savvy media gurus who kept their eyes on his approval ratings. But it is well known that Beijing selected Tsang because of his popularity (at the time). Theoretically, such approval ratings meant he could afford to lose some support by handling the politics - constitutional reform - and the negotiations between Hong Kong and Beijing.
History will show whether Tsang will be remembered for brokering the deal that would allow Hongkongers to finally elect our chief executives by universal suffrage beginning in 2017, or for the controversies that have marred his office in the past few months. But it is imperative we remember the reform deal was not easy.
The 2003 demonstration of people power, the subsequent economic goodies doled out by Beijing and the diminishing political returns of these policies brought on a more interventionist approach by the central government. Tsang got Beijing to sign off on universal suffrage at a time when mainland relations with Taipei had thawed, thereby nullifying the need to continue exemplifying Beijing's non-interventionist stance. Since then, Beijing has shown increasing edginess towards Hong Kong politics.
