THERE is one thing for sure; given even bearish economic forecasts, Hong Kong's leading blue chip companies are due to get bigger and they are due to invest more in China.
The growth of multi-national companies' interests in China, frequent interaction with the mainland and incorporation of Chinese-style business culture also feature in the picture that local economists paint for the territory's business scene beyond 2000.
Hong Kong companies have been under the influence of the Chinese economy for decades, and they will continue to be affected by the mainland and its people right through the change of sovereignty in 1997.
However, economists do not expect major changes in the way businesses are run in the next decade and believe Hong Kong will maintain its status as a regional financial hub, backed by the booming Chinese economy.
Peregrine Brokerage senior economist Ma Guonan said: 'With Hong Kong's traditional role as a financial hub and China-Taiwan relations not expected to normalise, Hong Kong will remain a gateway to China.' Even given some of the most bearish economic outlooks, Hong Kong Incorporated is due to become bigger in size in the next few years and its exposure to China will also grow.
The degree of expansion and level of investment in China, as a proportion of total assets, will depend on how the economic cycles turn.
Only two per cent of Hong Kong company assets, amounting to around $300 billion of Hang Seng index constituent company assets, are estimated to be in China, according to leading brokerage surveys. Similarly only two per cent of their earnings will rely on China.