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China needs reality check

Reading Time:2 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP

IT must be puzzling to anyone who monitors China's economy why its leaders and economists persist in making economic predictions that are so far-fetched.

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Last year this time, when it was clear to most analysts that its economy and inflation were way out of control, government leaders confidently predicted that the economy would grow 10 per cent and inflation would climb 15 per cent.

Even without the benefit of hindsight, every economist we spoke to then was sure that the goals were unattainable. And, of course, they were right.

Yesterday, China's economic planners did it again. True, the economy today is in better shape than a year ago.

Yet the economy is still growing more rapidly than the country can sustain while inflation continues to sprint ahead.

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Under such circumstances, it is highly commendable to ensure the current year's targets are not way out of line.

But this is not the same as inviting skepticism about the annual economic forecasts.

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