HONG KONG property sector forecasting has seen a complete breakdown in consensus among practitioners in the sector and in the securities business.
Until 18 months ago, analysts from all sectors linked to property were trotting out consensus-view stuff predicting how high capital and rental values would go.
The fracture in market perception towards property was triggered by the rise in interest rates last February and the long, slow crash in bond and equity values, here and elsewhere.
What we now have by way of forecasts of property capital values and rentals is several outspoken bears predicting catastrophe and a number of loud bulls suggesting that the dour market perception towards the sector is misplaced.
As a potential investor, an individual cannot ignore the sector's historically low price earnings ratio valuations, in which dividend yield sometimes exceeds valuation.
Back in December, a number of brokerages took this to read that the market was signalling disaster and saw capital values falling by 35 per cent in the residential property market and by 55 per cent in the office market.