Following the leader

ALL good newspapers keep their obituary files up to date, just in case. But no one's file has been updated more often than that of Deng Xiaoping. He has come back twice from oblivion and held on to power 25 years beyond the age when most Western politicians draw their pension. But now at least it seems even Deng's constitution can ward off no longer the ravages of old age. His final curtain call draws near.

As it does, so comes China Without Deng. Although it appears while the man himself still draws breath, this death-defying anticipation does not make the book any the weaker. Barring some major convulsion or the sudden death of one of the major players, the analysis presented here will hold good whether Deng meets Marx this year or shortly thereafter.

David Goodman and Gerald Segal are political analysts of the first order, and here they start from first principles. Deng's death will have a huge impact because there is no established system for handing over power, because the country is ruled from the top and major decisions were until comparatively recently centred on one man. The People's Liberation Army could move no troops without Deng's signature, the authors say.

Who will wield that power when Deng is dead? The answer is no one. Deng may be a short man but there is no one of equal stature to take over from him. Deng has 70 years' experience in the revolution and unparalleled respect among the Chinese armed forces. No one else measures up.

But a leader of some sort there will be. Goodman and Segal provide thumbnail sketches of all the plausible contenders for the top job. While the mainland propaganda machine swings in behind Deng's latest anointed successor, Jiang Zemin, the authors deflate the hot air and bombast in two paragraphs that could be delivered by a stand-up comedian. Jiang, they say, 'first achieved fame in the 1950s as a deputy director of the Shanghai Soap Factory'. The man has 'John Major-like qualities of charisma', and more importantly no standing in the army. He will not last the distance.

So much for Jiang. The verdict on the other candidates is more positive but in terms of Chinese politics all have their weak points. There may never again be a paramount leader.