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SCMP Reporter

APPLE Computer's ambitious plan to change the microprocessor platform on its flagship Macintosh range is clearly a dramatic success.

  It is one year since Apple moved to change from Motorola's 68000 series to the powerful new RISC-based (reduced instruction set computing) PowerPC chip, also made by Motorola.

  The company shipped more than a million PowerPC-based systems last year.

  The transition was no small feat. A year ago, some analysts were betting that the move to PowerPC was too great an obstacle for Apple, and that anything less than a spectacular success would probably be enough to sink the company.

  Those analysts have been proved wrong; the sales surge at Apple has even surprised some insiders.

  But while Power Macintosh systems appear to have garnered clear market acceptance, the jury is still out on what impact the PowerPC architecture will have on the mass personal computer market.

  The Microsoft Windows-Intel x86 architecture is as dominant as ever, and looks unthreatened as sales of Pentium-based machines are surging.

   There are analysts who question the legitimacy of the PowerPC architecture, and the commitment of the triumvirate of vendors backing it - Apple, IBM and Motorola.

  When the three firms announced their PowerPC plans three years ago, users applauded knowing soon there would be delivered to the industry some real choice - a competing architecture that would spur development and push the price-performance envelope.

  Three years later, however, in practice plans appear to have gone awry. Apple's successful transition to PowerPC aside, the architecture has had a negligible influence on the PC market.

  Analysts say the platform has far to go before it makes significant inroads.

  Primarily, the success or otherwise of the product will not be seen before the platform has a base of multiple operating systems that run on it, and a critical mass of native applications that have been written specifically for it becomes available.

  Critics say the failure of Apple and IBM to agree on critical operating software standards for the PowerPC platform has left it destined to remain a niche player.

  The imminent launch of the next-generation 32-bit Windows 95 operating system - formerly known as 'Chicago' - lends more credibility to that argument.

  Dan Heyler, regional director of semiconductor research at Dataquest, said he expected to see the PowerPC chip to account for about 10 per cent of chip shipments, but not until 1997. It has made little impact on local markets so far.

  'From a manufacturing standpoint, in Asia - especially with Taiwan being so strategically important - PowerPC has not even made a dent on the manufacturers,' Mr Heyler said.

  Dataquest's PC industry analyst Niall O'Reilly agreed.

  He said until IBM started shipping volumes of its Power Personal desktops, and co-ordinating the efforts of third-party software development, the outlook for the platform would remain nascent.

  While various OEM makers - particularly in Taiwan, and to a lesser extent Korea - are ready to roll with PowerPC product, they will not jump into the market until IBM starts throwing its considerable marketing muscle around.

  The PowerPC's chief backers, Apple, IBM and Motorola, recently stepped up their marketing for the launch of new processors in the PowerPC family that will round out the platform's offering - from chips for notebook computers through to high-end desktops.

  They expended enormous energy at the Comdex trade fair in Las Vegas last November to raise the profile of the platform.

   Last month, Motorola launched a World Wide Web (WWW) page devoted to PowerPC and the trio also gave the platform a high profile at the giant European computing industry trade show, CeBIT, in Hanover, Germany, this month.

  At CeBIT, 60 independent software developers and hardware vendors displayed a comprehensive range of products based on PowerPC, which its backers say shows its growing maturity.

  James Norling, president of Motorola for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said: 'Three years ago, we committed to providing a viable alternative to the mainstream PC architecture . . .

  'Today, we have delivered chips designed specifically for portable, desktop and workstation/server computers - the drivers of the information technology market.

  'Even though PowerPC technology is in its early stages, the key operating systems, such as AIX, Mac OS, Windows NT, OS/2, Solaris and NetWare are being made available.'   Apple Asia vice-president and managing director Robin Abrams maintains that Apple's successful transition to the PowerPC was the first stage of the chip's market penetration.

  Ms Abrams said she was looking forward to IBM's entry with competing PowerPC-based desktops - which is being tipped for May 23 - saying it would enhance the technology's credibility, and could only help Apple's marketing.

  Ms Abrams said the PowerPC Macintosh sold well in Asia, and that sales were not simply based on existing Apple customers upgrading their machines.

  There was considerable new business because of the platform, in particular from customers who were upgrading their business systems from 286-and 386-based computers.

  Especially successful in Asia were cross-platform Macintosh models that could run DOS and Windows applications in native mode as well applications designed for the Macintosh System 7 operating system, she said.



Apple beats PowerPC doomsayers