CHINA'S announcement of a missile exercise in the waters north of Taiwan this month introduces a dangerous new element to its disputes with Washington and Taipei.
While the other governments involved now appear anxious to be conciliatory, China has chosen to put the spotlight on the military potential of the row. Internally, the move will please the People's Liberation Army, which President Jiang Zemin has been courting in seeking to consolidate his position for the post-Deng era.
Beijing's choice of a location so close to Taipei for the exercise can only be a calculated attempt to put pressure on the island state. With these war games, China is sending a second - military - message to go alongside the patient and pragmatic diplomacy of Vice-Premier Qian Qichen.
As a result, and going beyond Beijing's immediate disputes with Taiwan and the United States, the move is likely to bring to the fore the secretly-held fears of many Asian nations that the struggle to succeed Deng will lead to military adventurism. Vietnam, and those nations which still have border disputes with China, will feel particularly vulnerable. Countries laying claim to the Spratly Islands may feel a need to reassess their defensive capabilities.
From an international standpoint, yesterday's announcement was poorly timed, as it came just as Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui offered Beijing an olive branch, describing the hostility that erupted over his recent trip to the US as 'a tragedy'.
Washington has also been doing its best to calm the situation. Secretary of State Warren Christopher has promised that visas will 'rarely' again be granted to Taiwanese leaders. More conciliatory gestures could have been expected at his meeting on August 1 with Mr Qian.
