Doubts cast on success of any attack
WESTERN diplomats in Beijing are convinced China is ready to invade Taiwan if it declares independence but doubt whether its forces are adequately equipped for the task.
'It would be a most difficult military operation against forces which are better equipped and well motivated,' a Western defence attache said.
The current missile tests are not believed to be part of large-scale military manoeuvres in preparation for an invasion but 'a slap on the wrist', according to one Western analyst.
Western military attaches, who have met in Beijing to discuss the missile tests, believe they were scheduled some time ago but the target was subsequently shifted closer to Taiwan.
China customarily holds military manoeuvres from April to early autumn culminating in a joint sea, land and air exercise.
'These things take time to organise so they are not being held just to make a political point,' an analyst said. However, the Chinese leadership has decided to seize the opportunity the tests presented to drive home its anger.
'Jiang Zemin, who heads the Military Commission, felt [President] Lee's visit was a setback, even a personal humiliation, so he welcomed the opportunity to show some steel,' the analyst said.
'They also feel that Hong Kong is in the bag now, so it is time to concentrate on Taiwan.' The consensus among most analysts is that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) still lacks the minimum 3:1 advantage in key areas to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan. A naval blockade would also be difficult because it would mean attacking ships sailing under the flag of other countries.
However, parts of the PLA have been given modern equipment to create the equivalent of a mobile reaction force ready to take on the task.
'Their equipment is getting better, the question is how long it will take them to learn to use it effectively,' another analyst said.
Despite the growing contacts between the PLA and the armed forces of other countries, it remains a highly secretive organisation.
'They still do not even release basic information like maps. It is all classified. We invite outsiders to observe our military exercises, but the Chinese never do this,' a frustrated Western defence attache said.
Military guests are always brought to see the same unit, 196 Division based in Tianjin, which always goes through the same exercises.
Despite the recent negotiations on non-proliferation, China's nuclear strength remains a mystery. While the other nuclear powers, especially the United States and Russia, are open about their arsenals, China has never ended speculation on the numbers of its warheads.
Not surprisingly, the diplomatic community is also completely in the dark as to what kind of missiles are currently being tested.
China possesses a full armoury ranging from the short-range ballistic missiles to smaller surface-to-surface missiles.
