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THE 16th century was hailed as the century of the Portuguese. The 17th century belonged to the Dutch, while the Spaniards laid claim to the 18th century. History allows Britain the 19th century and this one appears to be under the guardianship of Americans.

   But the question that stalks the minds of many is will the 21st century belong to the Chinese?   According to Qu Hong Bin, Smith New Court's research analyst for China, that country will undergo 'a complete change by 2010 or 2015.'   Development will change the country by the end of the 21st century as technology surges to new levels.

  'Even now, international organisations like the International Monetary Fund put forth the argument that China's economic power is already stronger than people thought.

  'They are coming to the conclusion even now that China's economy is the largest in the world behind the US and Japan,' Mr Qu said.

  If one were to measure the level of GDP per capita in the Chinese economy against the living standard, it would be hard to explain how 80 per cent of urban households have consumer goods such as colour televisions, washing machines and refrigerators.

  'Consumption is still higher than income measured against GDP per capita after 16 years of high growth,' Mr Qu said.

  Since the Beijing Government decentralised its control in 1979, people have been given the opportunities to attain wealth and a better standard of living. They have taken advantage of the loosening of controls.

  Businessmen, with connections to mainland leaders, are positive about China. 'The country is bound to face problems when implementing new reforms. But, if one looks at the mainland business in the long term, there are opportunities as the interior of China begins developing and infrastructure projects are built,' said one leading developer.

  Diane M. Yowell, director of Hongkong Bank China Services, said some projections had been exaggerated.

  'China is in a catch-up mode relative to other countries. I am not a believer that China is going to overtake the world,' she said.

  Mr Qu disagreed. He said China was undergoing a learning process and was learning at a rate that boggled the mind.

  In the 1980s, small village and township enterprises had sprung up despite competition from foreign joint ventures, state-owned enterprises and difficulty in obtaining loans from state-owned banks.

   These enterprises had to rely on friends and family for money to finance businesses. Many were successful.

  The government is now beginning to recognise the importance of these small enterprises as officials try to do away with the unprofitable state-owned enterprises.

  'This will force the government to overcome ideological barriers, like state-owned enterprises being the back-bone of the economy,' Mr Qu said.

  The picture will be clearer in the next few years as to what the government will do, once it is forced to recognise the value of these small enterprises.

  They can absorb the labour force.

  'In the long term, the government is going to create a more favourable business environment. It will have to. It will have no choice. That is basically the engine of economic growth in the non-state sector,' Mr Qu said.

  In the future, the government would design policies to control inflation and to ensure that economic growth did not hit the pockets of its citizens too hard.

  China would progress more quickly than other countries because it would have resources such as new technology and capital, Mr Qu said.

  Aside from economic theory, there is a religious prophecy that 'China is the land of the future and its people are the people of the future'.

  It predicts the country will defy critics and prophets of gloom to forge ahead and become one of the world's economic giants.

  World leaders will flock to Beijing and exchange views on politics and economics and seek mutual co-operation in trade and other matters.

  China's voice at international conventions and meetings will be heeded, unlike the 1990s, when it had difficulty in becoming accepted as a member of the World Trade Organisation.

   Until the end of the 20th century, China will be introducing various reforms in an attempt to build a socialist market economy.

  No government, including that of the US, will be able to resolve the world crises.

  Issues, which took years to resolve, will require immediate solutions in order to avoid economic turmoil.

  As countries rise from their calamities, such as Kuwait did after the 1991 Gulf War, or the Soviet Union did after it was dissolved in order to form the Commonwealth of Independent States, China will utilise its people to rebuild the country.

  If the religious prophecy is fulfilled, the 21st century will be hailed as the century of the Chinese.



Chinese age to dawn in 21st century