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Probability Theory

The Sure Thing worth watching

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SCMP Reporter

THE Sure Thing landed a race last season at huge odds but had been off the scene since just before midway through the previous campaign before making his seasonal debut at Happy Valley yesterday. It is unsafe to recommend unsound horses but if The Sure Thing comes out of this race in one piece and continues to work along, he could yet live up to his name.

He looked a lot less than fully fit in the Class Four sixth event yesterday but still came home quite well to finish officially fifth to handy All Smiles and progressive-looking Gold Talent. A close watch must be kept on the gelding's trackwork but if he does stand up to a serious preparation he will definitely win in this grade. There was plenty of talk late last season about Gunner but it seemed largely misplaced on the evidence of his efforts to date.

However, the three-year-old gave a glimmer of hope in the second event yesterday when finishing midfield to Fortune Winner in a Class Four longer sprint. He was ridden by claimer Win Chung Lai-fong and horses have been known to run kindly for her. But it was such a significant improvement on recent efforts that Gunner could be kept in mind. Bottomweight Precious Bobo was at fairly liberal odds in the third event and finished midfield in the race won comfortably by Mehrban.

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The Derek Cruz-trained four-year-old is poised on the verge of the drop into Class Six and will be eligible at least for the overlap. He could be a bit of a bet in the bottom grade given that he is still a young horse who does have some ability.

In the same race topweight Don Pedro ran much more encouragingly to finish on the heels of the placegetters. He is never going to amount to a great deal but the three-year-old New Zealand import is almost certainly good enough to get away with a race in this type of modest company.

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Great Chivalry finished third in this Class Five event and it was a good first-up effort from him. He may not be at 15-1 but trainer Chris Cheung Ting-pong should get a win out of the four-year-old soon.

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