BY the end of 1996, crude oil will be selling for US$16 a barrel, $17 a barrel, or $19.58 a barrel, and gold will be $380 an ounce, $420.88 an ounce or $440 an ounce - according to three Hong Kong pundits.
Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce chief economist Ian Perkin, UBS Securities (HK) managing director John Mulcahy, and Marc Faber (managing director of Marc Faber), yesterday met the Hong Kong Managment Association to review the accuracy of a series of predictions they made 12 months ago, and to issue more.
The most accurate pundit for 1995 was Mr Mulcahy, with 13 points, followed by Mr Faber with 12 and Mr Perkin with nine.
A year ago, Mr Faber said that by the end of 1995 a barrel of oil would cost $18. Mr Mulcahy predicted $19.50, while Mr Perkin said $17.25.
On December 29, 1995, oil was selling for $18.53.
Mr Faber, who has predicted a rise in gold's fortunes, was over-optimistic 12 months ago in his prediction that the precious metal would end 1995 at $420 an ounce, while Mr Mulcahy ($390) and Mr Perkin ($392) were closer with their punts.