HONG KONG would be put at risk if China took military action against Taiwan before the end of the century, President Jiang Zemin has warned the People's Liberation Army's top brass. Meeting generals keen to push ahead with plans for a military invasion of the island, Mr Jiang told them such action could wreck reunification with Hong Kong and Macau. 'Comrade Jiang expressed worries about the damage to the Hong Kong economy and the smooth transition in 1997, as well as confidence on the part of overseas investors along the entire coast,' said a source in Beijing. Mr Jiang, the chairman of the Central Military Commission, has publicly stated the Taiwan issue should not be tackled until Beijing resumes sovereignty over Hong Kong next year, and Macau in 1999. He told the generals Beijing should continue its relatively conciliatory line towards Taipei, as outlined in his January 1995 'eight-point peace initiative', until after the island's March 23 presidential elections. But, in a worrying split between Mr Jiang and his senior military personnel, sources said he was unable to persuade the PLA to curtail its active preparations for war. While China has already decided to hold war games off Taiwan before the election, sources say a decision on escalating the present sabre-rattling to more substantial moves towards forced reunification will not happen until April or May. But the generals urged Mr Jiang to take 'speedy action to solve the Taiwan issue once and for all', warning that Taipei was about to acquire sophisticated weapons. They suggested Taiwan's pro-independence movement would become more entrenched if, after his expected re-election, President Lee Teng-hui 'formalised his collusion' with elements in the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. The generals also explained why they believed Washington would not intervene in the event of an invasion, particularly in a US presidential election year. There are also signs that the military view may have more support in Beijing than Mr Jiang would like. While the first anniversary of his 'eight-point peace initiative' was celebrated with much fanfare in Beijing only last week, Western diplomats said none of the PLA top brass had voiced open support for Mr Jiang's programme. Moreover, his political foes on the Politburo Standing Committee, Qiao Shi and Li Ruihuan, had both sided with the PLA hawks. Mr Qiao, head of the legislature, and Mr Li, chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said nothing when Mr Jiang first issued his initiative and refused to endorse it last week. In the meantime, preparations for the military exercise along the Fujian coast - and a possible small-scale invasion - are continuing with minimal Politburo supervision. Apart from military commission vice-chairman General Zhang Wannian, who masterminded the four manoeuvres last year, Assistant Chief of Staff and Chief of Military Intelligence General Xiong Guangkai was also playing a pivotal role, sources said. Mr Jiang was last year unable to prevent General Xiong, who is also the PLA expert on US affairs, from becoming secretary-general of the party's Leading Group on Taiwan Affairs.
