Getting the turn in Hong Kong consumer demand right in 1996 after the slump of the past two years is going to make a few lucky investors a lot of money.
Retail stocks have already seen a good run-up in anticipation of this second coming of the Hong Kong shopper.
Property stocks have also done well on the expectation that demand for new residential property might resurrect sometime soon. The Hang Seng property index has out-performed the main index in 1996, rising 17.46 per cent, against 9.39 per cent on the main index.
HG Asia argues there are reasons to believe that there might be more money to be made from the sector yet.
At present property sector prices reflect the tinder-box conditions created by a major downturn in new supply in the residential sector over the next 18 months to two years. Basic market forces suggest prices will rise in the sector once consumer demand returns to historic averages.
HG Asia says once tangible evidence comes along of a return of the consumer's propensity to consume, property stocks will get another leg-up.
Unfortunately the retail sales for March and mortgage loan demand for April, issued on Friday, provided little evidence that consumers were out blowing loads of money in the first quarter.
