THE majority of leading stock investment advisers and fund managers in Hong Kong are expecting a surge in the benchmark Hang Seng Index in the lead up to the transfer of sovereignty.
A Sunday Money straw poll of a dozen leading international investment houses in Hong Kong found most predicting that the benchmark HSI would be between 12,500 to 13,500 points at the time of the handover, one year from today.
The average estimate worked out at 13,040 points, up 2,019.1 points or 18.3 per cent from its close on Friday.
The HSI has already enjoyed a bull-run rise of 59 per cent from its low of 6,967.93 points on January 23 last year.
About 80 per cent of those surveyed in a Sunday Money straw poll said that they expected to see widespread mainland-backed stock buying at about the time of the transition, if necessary to assure that the HSI was on a positive note.
Alex Tang, research director at Yamaichi International (Hong Kong), thought there also could be some deliberate buying by some of the big Hong Kong tycoons.
Nial Gooding, regional head of sales at Schroders Securities Asia, gave the most bullish forecast of those polled, predicting that the HSI would be at 13,800 points at the handover.