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Maintaining an open line

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It is a year from now, and the leaders of the Special Administrative Region Government take the stage in the Convention and Exhibition Centre to be sworn in by President Jiang Zemin .

Most are no surprise: Tung Chee-hwa as Chief Executive, while Chief Secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang and Financial Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen are re-appointed to their present posts.

The only shock comes when Democratic Party chairman Martin Lee Chu-ming is named as Secretary for Justice, the post-colonial equivalent of Attorney-General. It is a magnanimous gesture, setting the seal on China's rehabilitation of someone it formerly labelled as subversive.

Improbable though this scenario may be, it would offer great benefits to Beijing as the business leaders and Preparatory Committee members privately pushing for such an appointment never cease to remind mainland officials. Short of arresting Mr Lee (which is not even the preferred solution of hardliners) it holds out the best means of taking out of circulation someone seen as a trouble-maker in the sensitive post-handover period.

Better still, it allows Beijing to continue its United Front strategy of divide and rule. By offering Mr Lee an appointment he could scarcely refuse, it would split the democratic camp, wrong-foot British and US critics, and implicate him in the policies adopted by the incoming government.

Even though such an appointment is highly unlikely ever to come to pass, the fact that it is being canvassed at all reflects the strength of pressure from China's closest allies for a rapprochement with the democrats. Nor are such efforts necessarily doomed to failure.

Just a week after the Beijing airport stand-off, in which eight members of the United Front Against the Provisional Legislature were refused entry to the mainland and had their travel documents confiscated, there is renewed cause for optimism that China may yet adopt a more flexible stance.

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