The perceptibly softer tone of China's statements on Hong Kong in recent weeks and the unexpectedly transparent arrangements proposed for the selection of the Chief Executive have raised hopes of a pragmatic approach to the territory's affairs in the final months before the change of sovereignty. So has Beijing's apparent readiness to establish contact with the Democratic Party.
To use the meteorological imagery beloved of Chinese diplomats, do the first signs of thaw herald the arrival of spring and justify a leap of faith? Have the colder winds that blew early in the year been replaced by more balmy breezes and, if so, on how permanent a basis? A formal policy decision was clearly necessary before the Vice-Premier and Preparatory Committee chairman Qian Qichen could offer to talk to the Democratic Party. Yesterday, the South China Morning Post revealed that the Chinese leadership had taken a formal decision last month to drop the leftist, ideology-driven approach to Hong Kong and Taiwan affairs. There was, we reported, a top-level consensus that allowance must be made for capitalist systems and the capitalist way of doing things.
That can only be good news if it is the sign of a general shift in policy. What remains to be seen is just how far it will go. The Democrats, for instance, are to be regarded as a party whose major difference with Beijing is over the speed of democratisation. But, despite the remarkable improvement in relations which allowed senior party members to be given an audience at the Xinhua (New China News Agency) headquarters last week, the extent of future co-operation is still a matter of speculation. So, too, is the extent to which the Preparatory Committee leadership will give a free rein to the Selection Committee and how broad a range of candidates it will allow to be proposed.
Next week's meeting of the Joint Liaison Group in Beijing should give some indication of the extent of this new pragmatism. There is a good chance of a formal agreement on Container Terminal 9, now that the port consortiums have settled their differences. The handover celebrations are an increasingly urgent item on the agenda, while some items of far greater long-term significance are still outstanding. However, issues such as the adaptation of laws are increasingly being seen as a matter for the future government, while Britain's concern is more and more focused on the details and dignity of its role in the handover ceremony.
That may make it easier for China to be generous towards Hong Kong in this period of uncertainty. But for the future, it is the official change of policy which is the most encouraging development.
It would be a tragedy for Hong Kong and a blow to China's future relations with Taiwan if the raising of the anti-leftist banner turned out to be a short-term ploy designed to prop up political and business confidence during the handover period. The hope must be that the new approach is intended to apply to Hong Kong affairs for the longer term.