Nothing promises to mess up Asian economic growth so completely as an old-fashioned oil shock. United States forces may have pulled back from the brink of war with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, but crude oil prices this week hit a four-year high of US$25 a barrel.
Asian policy-makers are right to be losing sleep. Most of the region is deeply oil dependent and faces the possibility of huge economic dislocation should prices keep on rising.
Oil shock it may not yet be, but the price surge comes as a number of Asian tigers face dangerously high current account deficits, leaving international investors nervous of a possible Mexico-style currency collapse.
The worry is that a one-off hit to import costs, together with sluggish export performance, could be the final straw triggering an exodus from currencies such as the Thai baht.
Thailand's oil bill for the first eight months rose 37 per cent compared with the same period last year and is expected to hit a record 140 billion baht (about HK$42.84 billion) by the end of the year.
Similarly, South Korea, Pakistan, India and the Philippines all face big increases in their oil costs.