As the deadline draws closer for aspirants to the Special Administrative Region (SAR) election draws closer, there seems to be a growing consensus in political and business circles that Chief Secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang is out of the race.
Word has it that Beijing doesn't trust her because she's too closely associated with Governor Chris Patten and the colonial government. It simply isn't an option for the head of the civil service to offer herself as a candidate.
She should be astute enough to concede her fate and be content to play second fiddle to whoever is chosen to be the post-1997 chief.
But is this really the case? What is the basis for people making such an assertion if they truly believe the chief executive race is a genuine election and that Beijing, as it claims time and again, is not exercising any influence on the outcome? What about Chinese leaders' pledge that the elected chief should be someone acceptable to the community? If Hong Kong people trust that Beijing leaders are going to honour their words, that the 400-strong selection committee is formed by a wide representation of Hong Kong's views and that every member can have a free vote for who he or she trusts to be the best candidate, why should the business and political elites simply write off Mrs Chan's chances? Interestingly, an opinion poll published on Monday suggested that local people are defying their wisdom. The latest poll findings indicate that if Mrs Chan is included as a candidate, about 44 per cent of the respondents would still back the chief secretary.
Her popularity was well ahead of other chief executive hopefuls, with hot runner Tung Chee-hwa securing 18.4 per cent and Chief Justice Sir Ti Liang Yang and tycoon Peter Woo Kwong-ching managing only 14.7 per cent and 5.9 per cent respectively.
Mrs Chan's critics suggested we should not overplay the results of public opinion polls.