The release of Aung San Suu Kyi's top aide, 78-year-old Kyi Maung, and the removal of barricades from the Burmese opposition leader's own home, suggest that the international message is getting through to the military junta. The increasingly repressive actions of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) caused growing unease, among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as in the West.
Led by Malaysia, the seven-member ASEAN favoured gentle persuasion as a means of getting SLORC to change its mind. Thailand has now joined the chorus of protest against the latest crackdown in Rangoon, saying that Burma is not ready for full integration in ASEAN and needs time to resolve its internal problems. Thailand's stance may have been encouraged by the European Union's decision to impose sanctions on the military government. The dilemma which nations face in using sanctions is generally caused by concerns that they hurt the ordinary people most. That is less of a worry in the case of Burma, where development projects are often carried out using the forced labour. The arguments in favour of constructive engagement become that much more redundant under those circumstances.
Burma undeniably needs assistance to develop. The economy is in chaos, and nothing more clearly demonstrates the benefits of moving to a democratic system over a dictatorship than the contrast between Burma's neighbours and its own isolated, down-at-heel image.
Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda has said that he is closely watching events, and may make a direct appeal for democratisation. Japan's influence as the wealthiest Asian power, and a major provider of foreign aid, may have the most influence on the military rulers.
Perhaps Tokyo can convince them that the longer they oppress the Burmese people, the more they delay the country's development. The junta is crippling the economy with military spending to shore up its regime. Foreign debt is increasing, and the narcotics trade is rampant.
The Government's internal arrears have almost doubled in four years to US$1.5 billion, but mismanagement is concealed by a dual exchange rate mechanism which allows the regime to manipulate or conceal official transactions. With real income dwindling, social unrest is near the point where it may be difficult to contain. SLORC should heed the warnings, before it is too late.
