There will not be as much in the way of fireworks over the Taiwan Strait this year as there was in 1996. However, China-Taiwan relations will still be marked by intrigue.
The past two months have seen a series of high-level Chinese meetings on Taiwan. They included a secret conclave of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Leading Group on Taiwan Affairs; a conference of cadres working in central and regional-level Taiwan Affairs Offices; and sessions last week to observe the second anniversary of President Jiang Zemin's eight-point initiative on reunification.
Unlike their actions while waging war-games diplomacy in late 1995 and early 1996, Chinese leaders have been reticent about their next moves towards the 'breakaway province'.
The Hong Kong handover is a key consideration. As Mr Jiang reiterated in internal meetings: 'In 1997, all policies, including Taiwan policy, must not subvert the goal of preserving Hong Kong's stability and prosperity.' A return to sabre-rattling would upset international confidence in Beijing's ability to pull off a trouble-free transition on July 1.
Sources close to Beijing's Taiwan policy establishment, however, have indicated that the top echelon of the CCP has decided to take on Taiwan aggressively immediately after leadership changes have been completed at the First Session of the Ninth National People's Congress (NPC) in March 1998.
Senior cadres have recently settled on a four-pronged strategy to thwart the alleged pro-independence crusade of President Lee Teng-hui .
