The results of our latest opinion polls are as interesting and important as any we have conducted over the years. They present a strong endorsement of the actions of Tung Chee-hwa and indicate the public's high expectations that the Chief Executive-designate, and the legislature which will take office on July 1, will govern effectively and in the interests of Hong Kong. To go by the results, people are increasingly at ease about the handover of sovereignty to China. By a large majority, people also think it is time the present Government co-operated with the provisional legislature. The popularity of Chief Secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang, who will continue in that role in the Special Administrative Region government, continues to soar, while Mr Tung's is also rising. On the other hand, Governor Chris Patten and Democratic Party chairman Martin Lee Chu-ming seem to be losing in popularity. Mr Tung's announcement that, except for two retiring heads, he will retain in his government the present heads of the Civil Service, has received strong approval: 90 per cent endorse the announcement, with only two per cent objecting; eight per cent have no opinion. The two new appointments - Elsie Leung Oi-sie as the new Secretary for Justice and Lily Yam Kwan Pui-ying as head of the Independent Commission Against Corruption - were approved by a ratio of about eight to one by those who expressed an opinion. Both are relatively unknown to the public and the 'no opinion' figures are, respectively, 45 per cent and 44 per cent. Seventy-six per cent are confident Mr Tung's government after July 1 will support the promises of 'One country, two systems', and 'Hong Kong people running Hong Kong'. That optimism is shared by all sections of the community. Asian Commercial Research's 'Happiness Index', which has been conducted since October 1994, asks people how they expect to feel - happy or sad - at midnight on June 30. It provides an interesting indicator of confidence in the handover. On the first reading taken in October 1994, more were sad about the idea than were happy: 37 per cent said they expected to be sad; 26 per cent said they expected to be happy; and 37 per cent were not sure. In May 1996, the sad again outweighed the happy, by 11 percentage points, while 23 per cent had no opinion. In July 1996, this changed, with an excess of 10 percentage points for happy over sad, but those who were not sure increased. By October, those who expected to feel happy exceeded by 38 percentage points the 18 per cent who expected to feel sad. Women were less enthusiastic about the event than men. In the latest poll, the happiness indicator jumped 17 percentage points to 66 per cent. Eleven per cent said they would feel sad and 23 per cent had no opinion. Women, who had been much less happy than men about the handover, are now much happier than before - although still less so than men. Asked about the popularity and trustworthiness of Mr Tung, 48 per cent said the future Chief Executive's popularity was increasing while 25 per cent believed it was decreasing (with 20 per cent saying it had not changed and seven per cent having no opinion). Only 35 per cent, however, thought Mr Tung's trustworthiness had increased, compared with 30 per cent who thought it had decreased. About a quarter of those questioned were not ready to express an opinion. The major reasons why Mr Tung is thought more popular include the simple fact that he will hold the Chief Executive's job. Other factors mentioned are that he is fluent and appealing in the media; that people believe in him and like the way he is acting; and that he has good relations with China. The major reasons why he is thought less popular are that he follows China's wishes; that he will abolish human rights legislation; and that he is not perceived as being democratic. Those who say he is becoming more trustworthy are impressed by Mr Tung's attitudes and activities. They believe he is working for Hong Kong and will safeguard its interests. Those who say he is becoming less trustworthy do not like what they see as the extent to which he is influenced by China; they dislike his conservative approach and opposition to human rights legislation. A majority of all respondents aged over 24 were pessimistic about the present Government achieving much. But they had high expectations Mr Tung's government would do a good job for Hong Kong people in its first four months; 75 per cent said they were confident about his government's performance; 16 per cent said they were not confident while nine per cent had no opinion. Men and women in each age group had similar optimistic expectations. The polls also showed high public support for Mr Patten's administration co-operating with the provisional legislature despite the Governor's refusal to do so. Seventy-three per cent said they thought it time to co-operate with the legislature rather than to continue opposing it. Only 14 per cent thought Mr Patten should not do so. The big fall in Martin Lee's popularity raises the question of whether he is seen as being out of step with events leading up to the handover - or whether those who supported him and his party at previous elections feel he is not providing the leadership they expect. Mr Patten gained a high satisfaction score in the poll but was also perceived by 46.8 per cent to be losing popularity. On the other hand, Mrs Anson Chan has a very high satisfaction score and her popularity is seen by 44.5 per cent to be increasing. The satisfaction score for Mr Tung, the first recorded by ACR, shows a three-to-one ratio of the 'satisfied' to the 'dissatisfied' - 57-17.5 per cent - and a two-to-one perception that his popularity is increasing. The problem of measuring 'satisfaction' with the Governor has been noted for several years, given the difficulties in Hong Kong of measuring public opinion when the prestige of the person in question or the prestige of the respondent may be involved. The previous governor, Lord Wilson, gained his highest 'satisfaction' score when he was leaving Hong Kong. It is expected a similar problem will occur in future polls about Tung Chee-hwa. The polls were conducted by Asian Commercial Research for the South China Morning Post by telephone with 586 people aged 18-64 in a representative sample of Cantonese-speaking households at the end of February. David Bottomley is managing director of ACR
