Burma watchers argue the ascendancy of the hardliners will be cemented by the replacement of General Than Shwe with the chief of the Army, General Maung Aye.

The move could happen soon since Thursday's Army Day is the traditional time for a military reshuffle.

When the old dictator, Ne Win, marched on Rangoon's Saya San Hall to announce his surprise 'retirement' in 1988, a stony-faced then Colonel Khin Nyunt was seen moving in his shadow.

By that stage he had already been the hand-picked leader of the widely feared military intelligence service for nearly five years and appeared to be Ne Win's heir apparent.

In 1989 he led the propaganda campaign that sought to justify the crackdown against the National League for Democracy, and the arrest of the party's leadership - including Aung San Suu Kyi - by claiming it was secretly controlled by communists.

One speech was distributed in book form as The Conspiracy of Treasonous Minions with Myanmar and Traitorous Cohorts Abroad.

Diplomats said he sought the same year to justify the massacre of hundreds of civilian protesters - many of them students and children - as necessary to curb 'looters and unsavoury elements' who had 'taken advantage of the army's kindness'.

Yet, in recent months, members of the Burmese opposition and diplomats have said that General Khin Nyunt is a relative liberal compared to General Maung Aye, the man who appears to be winning the current struggle for supremacy.

Even the general's bitter enemies admit he is clever, worldly by the standards of the Burmese military and a strategist who likes to stay a step or two ahead of his rivals.

He is said to have wanted to at least broach the subject of talks with Ms Aung San Suu Kyi and to pursue peace talks with ethnic Karen insurgents to end their 50-year rebellion.

But to the army chiefs in the State Law and Order Council, as the junta styles itself, these moves smack of weakness.

They are said to distrust and dislike General Khin Nyunt for running a shadowy organisation that keeps tabs on them all without ever having commanded fighting troops.

Diplomats believe that the rise of General Maung Aye is probably reflected in recent moves to isolate Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, the arrest of dozens of her political activists - including General Khin Nyunt's brother-in-law - and the current attempt to find a military solution to the Karen rebellion.

The intelligence chief's star may have fallen because 'concessions' like the release of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in 1996 did not bring the global acceptance the junta might have expected.

The impending admission of Burma into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations may also have convinced hardliners that they can carry on without the blessing of their many critics in the West.

One diplomat summed up the situation by saying: 'Right now, Maung Aye's rise shows that a liberal opening in Burma is further away than ever.'