When I started coming to Hong Kong in 1995, I had read the reports of Hong Kong's imminent demise and was ready to drive a few more nails into the coffin of a once prosperous economy.
Yes, Hong Kong had been called the world's freest economy and the world's third most competitive economy. It had become the world's fourth leading source of foreign direct investment, its eighth leading trading economy, and one of its wealthiest in terms of per capita purchasing power.
It had become the leading city in the fastest growing area of the fastest growing part of the fastest growing economy of the fastest growing region in the world. None of that mattered, I was told, because it would all be swept away.
An interesting hypothesis, but my earlier experience in 17 other economies told me that to understand where an economy is going one has to understand where it has been. Not by examining a single type of industry, but by understanding industries and issues that span the entire economy. Under such scrutiny, the Hong Kong economy is revealed as far stronger than I had been led to believe.
Some of Hong Kong's most important advantages come in pairs. In Hong Kong there is balance and dynamic interaction between business and government, local and overseas firms, and entrepreneurship and management that is unique within Asia.
In each case, it is the combination of elements that is crucial, not just the elements themselves. Hong Kong's combinations show that the territory does not rely on one type of industry, one type of firm, or one type of strategy for its economic success.
Although the Hong Kong Government plays a large role in some sectors, it has a light hand with respect to most of the economy. Hong Kong's government sets the rules and then generally leaves the private sector to make its own way, resisting calls to pick winners, target industries, or to protect and subsidise.