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SCMP Reporter

The population of Hong Kong is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.3 per cent per year, from 6.29 million in mid-1996 to 8.21 million in mid-2016.

  Following each population census, the Census and Statistics Department compiles projections of the population of Hong Kong by age and sex.

  The population projections provide a common basis for government programme planning in such areas as education, housing, transport, social services and health services.

   The projection results are also widely used by the private sector in business planning and development.

   The latest projections are compiled on the basis of the 1996 Population By-census results.

  The projected population covers not only persons normally living in Hong Kong, but also those staying here temporarily.

   Persons staying temporarily in Hong Kong include such persons as imported workers, foreign domestic helpers and transients such as tourists.

   There are three main contributing sources to the growth of the population.

  Immigrants from China would contribute significantly to the population growth. Assuming the existing policy remains unchanged - that one-way permit quota from China is 150 persons per day, immigrants from China during 1997-2016 would amount to around 1.1 million, accounting for 57 per cent of the population growth in the period.

  Natural increase (that is, surplus of births over deaths) and net movements of Hong Kong residents (both permanent residents and other residents) are the other two contributing sources. These would account for 25 per cent and 18 per cent respectively of the projected population growth in the period.

  The projected population shows a continual ageing trend, as reflected by the following indicators.

  First, the median age of the population would rise from 34 in 1996 to 39 in 2006 and 41 in 2016. The median age is the age which divides a population into two halves when all individuals in the population are ranked according to age. That is to say, half of the population is above its median age and the other half below it.

  Second, the proportion of the elderly population is expected to increase. The population aged 65 and over would increase from 0.63 million in 1996 to 0.83 million in 2006 and 1.09 million in 2016.

   Expressed as a percentage to the respective total population, its proportion will increase from 10 per cent in 1996 to 11 per cent in 2006 and 13 per cent in 2016.

  Third, the projection results indicate a declining trend in the proportion of the young population. In 1996, 19 per cent of the population were aged under 15. This proportion is projected to decrease to 16 per cent in 2006 and 15 per cent in 2016.

For more information write to the General Statistics Branch (2) of the Census & Statistics Department at Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai or call 2582 4732.



Counting heads helps planning